Cumulative Fund Flows Across Assets Many investors continue to favor the relative safety of bonds and money market funds over riskier equities, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and relatively high interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Gold Demand – Gold ETF vs. Central Banks Amid macro conditions, currency moves, and rising geopolitical tension, gold’s rally gathered pace in 2025 as central banks began competing with private investors for scarce bullion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Price (5-Year Rolling Change) and World Military Expenses When governments ramp up military spending, gold tends to sparkle. Rising geopolitical risks and looser fiscal policy weaken paper currencies and revive inflation worries, sending investors back to bullion. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Equity Market and Share of the Biggest Sector in the U.S. History keeps repeating on Wall Street — when diversification fades, sector dominance rises. But it never lasts. Sooner or later, shifts in the economy, technology, or geopolitics bring the rotation full circle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI U.S. Beijing’s early-2024 intervention lit a rocket under Chinese equities, leaving Wall Street in the dust. Fueled by stimulus and growing investor conviction, the rally could stretch further if geopolitical tensions cool. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Monthly Foreign Net Purchases of Long-Term U.S. Securities Record foreign holdings of U.S. assets in 2025 point to lasting investor confidence, even in the face of global economic and geopolitical risks. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Intraday Returns – NY Cash Trading Hours vs. Overnight Trading U.S.-daytime volatility’s resurgence reflects renewed market focus on American macro developments, with global investors avoiding illiquid overnight hours—a behavior typically seen after major geopolitical or policy events. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Flows into Metals Funds Commodity funds—especially those tracking gold and silver—have seen a surge of inflows in recent weeks, fueled by geopolitical jitters, bets on Fed rate cuts, and steady central bank buying. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Seasonality – Monthly Median Return on Global 10y+ Goverment Bonds Long-term government bonds globally face a challenging September due to seasonality and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, reinforcing historical trends of September being their worst-performing month annually. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Real Yields and Gold Gold’s typical inverse link to real rates is fundamental, but inflation expectations, central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and investor sentiment driven by debt and fiscal worries can disrupt this relationship for extended periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold – Global Central Bank Holdings Central bank gold demand cycles respond to global economic and political factors. Recently, demand has increased amid financial instability, currency trust concerns, inflation, sanctions, and geopolitical conflicts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research