YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities Despite some volatility and brief periods of outflows, flows into U.S. equities in 2025 have been running above the 24-year average, with projections pointing to a record year for inflows. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 2025 Year-End Forecasts Wall Street’s S&P 500 forecasts for year-end 2025 have not fully recovered from the recent tariff turmoil. The average outlook has become more cautious, with a wide spread between optimistic and pessimistic projections. Image: Yahoo Finance
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its meetings in December 2025, January 2026, and March 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5–3.75%, in line with their elevated neutral rate projection. Image: Deutsche Bank
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend The widening gap between current earnings forecasts and historical growth trends is fueling investor concerns about the sustainability of these optimistic projections. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Annualized 10-Year Total Return Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts a 3% average annualized total return for the S&P 500 over the next decade. This projection is notably lower than historical averages, driven by worries about elevated equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Fed Funds Rate and 2-Year U.S. Inflation Swap Current market pricing of Fed rate cuts indicates a pivot from inflation worries to growth concerns, suggesting investors expect the Fed to prioritize economic stability over aggressive inflation control. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Balance Sheet Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction in June 2025 and end quantitative tightening by September, which could influence market liquidity and interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. core CPI inflation to be 2.8% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in the impact of tariffs. Without tariffs, their projection for core CPI inflation would be 2.3% by year-end. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed has revised its 2025 projections, now anticipating only two rate cuts instead of four, with future reductions dependent on the progress made in managing inflation. Image: Bloomberg
Interest Rates – Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points today, but projections for 2025 indicate a more gradual easing strategy, aiming to boost the economy while keeping inflation in check. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Futures The market has scaled back its outlook for Fed rate cuts in 2025, with current projections showing three cuts, down from earlier forecasts. Image: Bloomberg