U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Since 1790 The trajectory and duration of the U.S. bond bear market can be influenced by factors such as inflation, economic growth, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI If the Fed cuts rates in June, U.S. core CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could pose challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Consecutive Trading Days of Inverted 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury Yield Curve The anticipation of Fed easing is being driven by the aging of yield curve inversion. Market participants are expecting the Fed to cut rates in order to stimulate economic growth and prevent a potential recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Composite in Elections Years and Election Years When >10% Gains in Previous Year Given the Fed’s interest rate projections, market sentiment indicators and historical market behavior, investors may reasonably expect the S&P 500 index to reach new highs soon. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 vs. 1982 Analog With financial conditions easing considerably and the Fed set to cut rates in 2024, will the S&P 500 continue to track the 1982 analog? Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Flexible and Sticky Inflation Flexible inflation (core goods) has fallen significantly and sticky inflation (core services) is still declining, which is good news as it suggests a moderation in the inflation rate. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Trajectory of the S&P 500 Across Tightening Cycles Should U.S. equity investors remain cautious as long as the Fed continues to raise interest rates? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot
Wage Growth – Potential Trajectory of U.S. Average Hourly Earnings Will wage growth slow enough in 2023 to satisfy the Fed? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Impact on U.S. Consumer Spending If Oil Prices Rise to $120 If oil prices remain elevated, will the Fed raise interest rates more gradually than markets expect? Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Change in Financial Conditions Following Major Geopolitical Events Will the Fed delay rate hikes and balance sheet reduction? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research