Estimated EPS Impact from a 90bp YoY Increase in Cash Yield Through Interest Income Historically, the S&P 500 tends to do well during Fed hike cycles. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Asset Returns During Hiking Cycles Investors should worry when the Fed stops raising or cuts rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CPI Inflation in Six DM Economies As inflation persists, will the Fed raise interest rates more than the market expects? Image: BofA Global Research
Greatest Annual Flows Biggest inflows into TIPS and financials this year, as the Fed lets the U.S. economy run hot. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Tech Stocks – Central Bank Balance Sheet vs. Big Tech Market Capitalization Are markets too optimistic about Fed tapering? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Asset Bubbles and Tight Money Should the Fed raise rates to prick the tech bubble? Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. 10-Year Note Yields: Explaining Rolling Three-Month Changes Chart suggesting that U.S. policy uncertainty and Fed committing to low rates explain U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
A Basket of Inflation Expectations The Fed’s unlimited quantitative easing program lifts inflation expectations, limiting the expansionary effects of negative interest rates. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk of recession is reduced. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
Earnings Estimate Progression The consensus growth estimate for Q3 earnings stands at -3.2%, but the earnings recovery seems better than 2016. The Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the U.S. stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments
One of the Best Recession Indicator The Fed is cutting rates and the 10-year rate is inverted to Fed funds. Image: Real Investment Advice