S&P 500 Composite in Elections Years and Election Years When >10% Gains in Previous Year Given the Fed’s interest rate projections, market sentiment indicators and historical market behavior, investors may reasonably expect the S&P 500 index to reach new highs soon. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 vs. 1982 Analog With financial conditions easing considerably and the Fed set to cut rates in 2024, will the S&P 500 continue to track the 1982 analog? Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Flexible and Sticky Inflation Flexible inflation (core goods) has fallen significantly and sticky inflation (core services) is still declining, which is good news as it suggests a moderation in the inflation rate. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite Fed’s rate hikes, Goldman Sachs does not foresee a recession and remains optimistic about the U.S. economy’s ability to continue growing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Trajectory of the S&P 500 Across Tightening Cycles Should U.S. equity investors remain cautious as long as the Fed continues to raise interest rates? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot
Wage Growth – Potential Trajectory of U.S. Average Hourly Earnings Will wage growth slow enough in 2023 to satisfy the Fed? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Historical Length of Recessions and Market Declines While Fed hiking rates is going to be a concern, can investors estimate the time until the next U.S. recession? Image: Real Investment Advice
Impact on U.S. Consumer Spending If Oil Prices Rise to $120 If oil prices remain elevated, will the Fed raise interest rates more gradually than markets expect? Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Change in Financial Conditions Following Major Geopolitical Events Will the Fed delay rate hikes and balance sheet reduction? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research