Prediction for U.S. GDP Growth from Q42020 to Q42021 32 leading academic economists do not see significantly higher GDP growth under Donald Trump or Joe Biden, as long as the current control of Congress remains the same. Image: BofA
% of Tech Outperformance Explained by Bond Yields Chart suggesting that falling bond yields lead to tech outperformance more than ever. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index vs. Global Manufacturing PMI A stronger global growth could lead to a weaker U.S. dollar. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Savings Rate Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to a permanent increase in the savings rate? Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Elections and S&P 500 Average 3-Month Forward Return from August 1st During Election Years The S&P 500 tends to see worse-than-average performance leading up to U.S. elections. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Macro Fundamentals vs. S&P 500 This chart shows the current wide divergence between U.S. lead indicators and the S&P 500 (R² = 0.97). Image: Pictet Asset Management
S&P 500 Futures Market Liquidity Liquidity in U.S. equity collapsed in early 2018 and remains at low levels. Lack of liquidity tends to lead to violent market moves. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year Annualized Stock Returns vs. Starting P/E Levels Higher P/Es tend to lead to weaker long-term returns. Image: Credit Suisse
Cumulative Weekly Money Market Flows by Domicile Record money market flows in the United States, as the coronavirus pandemic leads to a flight to quality. Image: BofA Global Research
Inflation Assets vs. Deflation Assets The leadership remains deflationary, and the laggards remain inflationary. Deflation assets: government bonds, U.S. investment grade, S&P 500, U.S. consumer discretionary, growth and US high yield. Inflation assets: TIPS, EAFE, U.S. banks, value and cash. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Relative Valuation: Small Caps vs. Nasdaq 100 Index The relative valuation today suggests that small caps should lead the Nasdaq 100 over the next decade. Image: Morgan Stanley