PCE Inflation vs. Output Gap (Leading Indicator)
PCE Inflation vs. Output Gap (Leading Indicator) Positive output gap suggests higher core inflation next year. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
Valuation – S&P 500 Historical P/E Ratio in Different Inflation Environments
Valuation – S&P 500 Historical P/E Ratio in Different Inflation Environments Should U.S. equity investors expect lower stock valuations, as U.S. core PCE remains elevated? Image: Guggenheim Partners
U.S. Transitory Inflation Meter
U.S. Transitory Inflation Meter Is U.S. inflation transitory? The BofA US transitory inflation meter remains at 100. BofA expects core PCE inflation will settle down to 2.1% by the end of 2022. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Output Gap (% of potential GDP) and Inflation
U.S. Output Gap (% of potential GDP) and Inflation U.S. output gap (% of potential GDP) tends to lead underlying core PCE by 12 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Euro Area and U.S. Inflation and Central Bank Forecasts
Euro Area and U.S. Inflation and Central Bank Forecasts The Fed projects U.S. inflation well above 2% into 2023. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute