Distribution of S&P 500 Calendar Year Returns

Distribution of S&P 500 Calendar Year Returns Goldman Sachs forecasts S&P 500 will climb by 16% to 4,300 by the end of 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Seasonality

S&P 500 Seasonality Chart showing the S&P 500 seasonality from 1985 to 2018 (excluding 2008). This is not a forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs

Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate

Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate So far, 85% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimates, thanks to coronavirus cuts to forecasts. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Current P/E Valuation Based on 2021 EPS Scenarios

S&P 500 Current P/E Valuation Based on 2021 EPS Scenarios Goldman Sachs baseline forecast for S&P 500 earnings in 2021 is $170, and the downside forecast is $115. Today, the S&P 500 trades at 19.5x the buy-side estimate of EPS. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 and Dividend Futures

S&P 500 and Dividend Futures This chart suggests that the S&P 500 does appear to be trading off dividend forecasts more than earnings. Image: Morgan Stanley Research