How the S&P 500 Does in an Election Year If the President Is Up for Re-Election or Not Historically, U.S. stocks tend to perform well in election years when the incumbent president is running for re-election, a pattern that seems to be continuing this year. Image: Carson Investment Research
Cumulative U.S. Equity Fund Flows from 1 Year Before to 1 Year After U.S. Presidential Elections Since 2004 Positive flows into U.S. equity funds could help support further gains in the S&P 500 after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probabilities for the U.S. Presidential Election The prediction markets are suggesting a high probability of a Republican sweep in the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, with potentially far-reaching implications for the political landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 3-Month Performance During an Election Year In Presidential election years, June to August stands out as the strongest 3-month period of the year. The S&P 500 has been up 75% of the time, with an average return of 7.3% since 1928. Image: Carson Investment Research
How the S&P 500 Performance After Big Starts to Previous Election Years After a strong start to the election year, the U.S. stock market tends to regain momentum towards the end of Q2 and generally continues to perform well until the end of the year. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Composite in Elections Years and Election Years When >10% Gains in Previous Year Given the Fed’s interest rate projections, market sentiment indicators and historical market behavior, investors may reasonably expect the S&P 500 index to reach new highs soon. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 – Election Year Seasonality During election years, the S&P 500 tends to trend sideways in Q1. Investors are typically cautious about the potential outcomes of the upcoming elections and tend to adopt a more conservative approach. Image: MarketDesk Research
Average S&P 500 Returns by Election Cycle Year The dynamics and uncertainties of the electoral process often impact market performance in presidential election years, leading to a historical trend of weaker S&P 500 returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Average Monthly Performance and How Often Each Month Is Higher in Pre-Election Years In December, during a pre-election year, U.S. stocks typically exhibit notable performance, indicating a positive trend and potential opportunities for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 First Year of a New President in Pre-Election Years Typically, during pre-election years under a new President, the S&P 500 tends to experience a robust market rally as the election year approaches. Image: Carson Investment Research
Median Sector Returns in the Year Before U.S. Election Day Given the historical trend of the tech sector underperforming the S&P 500 in the year preceding the U.S. election day, should investors consider underweighting their exposure to the tech sector in their portfolios? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research