S&P 500 Performance After >20% Pre-Election Years Following a pre-election year gain exceeding 20%, the S&P 500 index has consistently shown positive growth during the election year, with an average increase in value of 11.3% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Volatility – VIX and U.S. Election The historical trend of the VIX spiking before U.S. elections and then rapidly declining afterward can be attributed to heightened uncertainty and investor fear in the lead-up to the elections. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928 The historical pattern of the VIX rising before U.S. elections and then rapidly plunging afterward is attributed to increased uncertainty and investor fear leading up to the elections. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
VIX Average Trend in U.S. Election Years Historical patterns suggest that the VIX tends to bottom out in mid to late August, followed by a trend of increasing volatility as the U.S. Election Day approaches, driven by heightened market uncertainty. Image: BofA Global Research
How U.S. Stocks Historically Do When the Incumbent President Doesn’t Run for Re-Election The tendency for U.S. stocks to perform well in years when the incumbent president chooses not to run for re-election can be attributed to decreased uncertainty surrounding future governance. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns During an U.S. Election Year The S&P 500 has historically performed well in August during presidential election years, contributing to an overall positive market sentiment and potentially extending the summer rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
How the S&P 500 Does in an Election Year If the President Is Up for Re-Election or Not Historically, U.S. stocks tend to perform well in election years when the incumbent president is running for re-election, a pattern that seems to be continuing this year. Image: Carson Investment Research
Cumulative U.S. Equity Fund Flows from 1 Year Before to 1 Year After U.S. Presidential Elections Since 2004 Positive flows into U.S. equity funds could help support further gains in the S&P 500 after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probabilities for the U.S. Presidential Election The prediction markets are suggesting a high probability of a Republican sweep in the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, with potentially far-reaching implications for the political landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 3-Month Performance During an Election Year In Presidential election years, June to August stands out as the strongest 3-month period of the year. The S&P 500 has been up 75% of the time, with an average return of 7.3% since 1928. Image: Carson Investment Research
How the S&P 500 Performance After Big Starts to Previous Election Years After a strong start to the election year, the U.S. stock market tends to regain momentum towards the end of Q2 and generally continues to perform well until the end of the year. Image: Carson Investment Research