Different Holders of DM Government Debt

Different Holders of DM Government Debt The chart shows the historical breakdown of different holders of DM government bonds and overall DM debt-to-GDP. Even with QE, central bank government bond holdings are below historical peaks. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute

Risk Parity Funds

Risk Parity Funds Currently, risk parity equity allocations are near the top of the historical range. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed

Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed When the Tape and Fed lean bullish, as today, the S&P 500 has historically risen at 17.96%/year since 1968 vs. 9.98%/year on a buy-and-hold basis. Image: Ned Davis Research

U.S. Equities – One Year Return After a Fed Rate Cut

U.S. Equities – One Year Return After a Fed Rate Cut The chart shows how U.S. equities have historically performed after a 25 bps and 50 bps Fed rate cut over the last 35 years. You may also like “First Fed Rate Cut.” Image: Ycharts

S&P 500 and Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index

S&P 500 and Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index The chart shows that the S&P 500 and high-yield bonds tend to go up and down together. Keep in mind that historically, the correlation between the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index is 91.7%. Image: First Pacific Advisors, LP

Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP

Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP This ratio is useful in determining whether the U.S. stock market is undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical average. The current reading is pretty high at 149.15%. You may also like the “Stock Market Valuation” and “S&P 500 Index – Earnings & Valuation.” Image: Bianco Research

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus Fed funds rate yield curve and recessions. Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve is associated with slow economic growth or recessions. The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession. A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 could…

S&P 500 Recovery Since The Financial Crisis

S&P 500 Recovery Since The Financial Crisis The chart shows that the S&P 500 has outperformed its historical recoveries since 2009. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research