CEO Confidence & Business Confidence

CEO Confidence & Business Confidence Deutsche Bank points out that something happened to CEO confidence and business confidence when the trade war escalated in 2018H2. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Short-term Pessimism Almost as Extreme as December

Short-term Pessimism Almost as Extreme as December The trade war and tariffs scared the stock market. Short-term pessimism is generally a good contrarian indicator, especially at a time when the media seem to be worried about the market. Image: Ned Davis Research

Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks

Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Is The U.S. Economy Slowing Down?

Is The U.S. Economy Slowing Down? The chart below shows that the U.S. economy is slowing down. The U.S.-China trade war and slower global growth are not helping. But as long as there is no recession, slowing down is fine.

Average Consumer Price Increase After US Import Tariffs by 25%

Average Consumer Price Increase After US Import Tariffs by 25% This chart shows the average consumer price increase in percentage points for US consumers/firms after an increase in US import tariffs by 25 percentage points. Trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Image: Ifo…

Global Equities Are Pricing In A Global Recovery

Global Equities Are Pricing In A Global Recovery This chart shows that global equities tend to move ahead of changes in world trade volumes, with a two-month lag.  Global equities are pricing in a global recovery, not global trade wars. Image: Absolute Strategy Research

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57%

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…

Tariffs Are a Hidden Tax on American Consumers and Companies

Tariffs Are a Hidden Tax on American Consumers and Companies Tariff man is back! Keep in mind that trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Trump’s trade war hurts the U.S. economy and stocks.