Search Results for: Fed

Wage Growth, Monetary Policy and S&P 500 When the spread between wage growth and the Fed funds rate is wide, it is generally positive for equities. Image: Topdown Charts

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: UBS

S&P 500 Quarterly Operating Earnings Expectations Despite the earnings squeeze, the Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the stock market. Image: Bianco Research

Stock Market Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession The chart shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average reacts positively to Fed first rate cuts. Image: Ned Davis Research

Conference Board U.S. LEI and 6-Month S&P 500 Forward Return A Fed rate cut is good for the S&P 500 when the Conference Board U.S. LEI is positive. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Growth/Value Stock Ratio Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession After first Fed rate cut and no recession within the next 12 months, growth stocks should outperform value stocks. Image: LPL Research

S&P 500 Returns After Rate Cuts Near Highs Since 1980, the Fed has cut rates 17 times (S&P 500 within 2% of new highs). One year later, the S&P 500 was still higher. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

Large-Cap Growth/Value Equity Series Ratio Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession The chart suggests no recession, when growth stocks outperform value stocks, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Ned Davis Research

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus Fed funds rate yield curve and recessions. Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve is associated with slow economic growth or recessions. The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession. A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 could…

Total Outlays (Spending) to GDP This chart shows the percentage share of GDP that the U.S. federal government spends. Image: Bianco Research

U.S. Total Receipts (Taxes) to GDP This chart shows the percentage share of GDP that is collected by the U.S. federal government through taxes. Image: Bianco Research