Search Results for: Fed

U.S. Total Receipts (Taxes) to GDP This chart shows the percentage share of GDP that is collected by the U.S. federal government through taxes. Image: Bianco Research

Detecting and Measuring Asset Bubbles Detecting and measuring asset bubbles is not always an easy task. This chart puts into perspective the current U.S. households financial assets to GDP and the U.S. federal debt as percentage of GDP.

The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years Is more volatility expected ahead? This chart suggests that the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX usually follows the U.S. 10-year vs. 3-month Treasury spread (inverted) with a 3-year lag. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX.”…

S&P 500 Index vs. Global M1 Liquidity Another good correlation between the S&P 500 Index and global M1 liquidity, while the Fed plans to stop quantitative tightening. The money supply M1 is the amount of effective money in the economy. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

S&P 500 and Recession Probability Great chart showing twelve Fed easing cycles since the 1950s, including the recession probability and the average return of the S&P 500 Index. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Recessions since 1957 This chart shows that almost every Fed rate cut has been associated with a recession. Image: John P. Hussman

The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Historically Low But the FOMC projection suggests that the unemployment rate cannot improve indefinitely. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? The risk of a Fed policy error The probability of a Fed rate cut in July 2019 is now 84.6%. Image: Bloomberg

Probability of US Recession is Rising Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, said that “Fed could cut as soon as July but it may not halt slowdown/recession.” Image: U.S. Global Investors

Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

Market Smell A Recession As Yield Curve Inverts Quant models and yield curve inversion smell of recession rather than mid-cycle Fed eases. Image: J.P. Morgan