Fed MBS Holdings and FHFA House Price Index

Fed MBS Holdings and FHFA House Price Index Despite a strong U.S. housing market, the Federal Reserve continues to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 Year-Over-Year Return Explained

S&P 500 Year-Over-Year Return Explained Chart suggesting that strong housing and jobs growth explain S&P 500 returns. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown?

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? Historically, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1. Today, it stands at 1.37. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables…

U.S. Inflation since 2000

U.S. Inflation since 2000 U.S. households are more concerned about the rising cost of medical care and housing, than overall inflation. Image: Financial Times

Median Age of All U.S. Homebuyers

Median Age of All U.S. Homebuyers Housing affordability is difficult today. The median age of all U.S. homebuyers hit a record, rising from 31 years in 1981 to 47 years in 2019. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Homeownership Disparity Deepens

Homeownership Disparity Deepens Since 1994, the gap between blacks and whites has widened, in part because starter-home prices have exploded, year after year. Inequality: you may also like “U.S. Unemployment Rate: Black or African Americans” and  “U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket” and “Countries With the Highest Housing Bubble Risks.” Picture Source: Bloomberg

Home Builder Sentiment Leads Consumer Spending

Home Builder Sentiment Leads Consumer Spending Interesting chart suggesting that the NAHB housing market index leads the change in consumer spending. The latest reading for July suggests that the outlook for the U.S. economy is expected to slow. Image: Dr Thomas Kevin Swift

Are We Near a Recession?

Are We Near a Recession? “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply…

Is Residential Investment a Drag Since the Great Recession?

Is Residential Investment a Drag Since the Great Recession? Indeed, it is very low compared to other business cycles. And because housing is already in a slump relative to other economic cycles, it shouldn’t cause a recession. Image: Blackrock