S&P 500 Index vs. MSCI EAFE Index Largely due to structural headwinds, international stocks have underperformed U.S. stocks significantly in this bull market, over the last ten years. It could continue next year as well. Image: LPL Research
Total Return since 2008: 60/40 Portfolio, S&P 500 and U.S. Treasury 20+ Year The current bull market began 10 years ago, but the next 10 years could be very different. Image: Financial Times
S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Rates and Secular Cycles Chart suggesting that the secular bull market of the 1920’s is probably the best example of the current cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index and UBS Weighted Global Growth Surprise Index The divergence between the S&P 500 Index and the global growth surprise index could explain why this bull market is so hated. Image: Swedbank Research
S&P 500 Valuation This chart shows that the S&P 500 is in a trading range rather than in a bearish or bullish market trend, for more than 20 months. Image: Fidelity Investments
Dow Jones Transportation Average vs. S&P 500 This interesting chart suggests that the Dow Jones Transportation Average underperforms in secular bull markets. Actually, the S&P 500 had higher returns when the Dow Jones Transportation Average experienced negative momentum. Image: Oppenheimer & Co.
Margin Debt and S&P 500 This chart shows that margin debt has not recovered from last December’s lows, while the stock market has risen sharply.Usually, it is mostly bullish for stocks, because investors are still fearful. Image: Yardeni Research, Inc.
10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns If history helps us to predict the future, the 10y-1y treasury yield spread suggests low returns ahead for U.S. stocks. After 10 years of a bull market, our stock market forecasting model also shows that the market follows a different path in 2019. Statistically,…
The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High Bulls make money and are happy again… Yes, but until when? Keep in mind that the US stock market is currently overvalued by 9%. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC