Survey – U.S. Recession Probability

Survey – U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession fears are fading and U.S. credit investors now see a 21% chance of recession over the next 12 months. It was 25% in September. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey

S&P 500 and Margin Debt

S&P 500 and Margin Debt Margin debt has still not recovered from last December’s lows. Usually, it is mostly bullish for stocks, because investors are still fearful. Image: Merk Investments

S&P 500 Earnings and U.S. Capital Spending

S&P 500 Earnings and U.S. Capital Spending This chart shows that U.S. core capital spending is near a 20-year high. Are fears that U.S. companies may be curtailing spending plans overblown? The absence of dividend cuts also suggests that U.S. companies are confident in their future earnings potential. Image: The Leuthold Group

Search Interest for Recession

Search Interest for “Recession” Google search interest for “Recession” has declined. Is the fear gone? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Gold Fund Flows

Gold Fund Flows Investors are flooding into gold as fears of a global slowdown mount. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Global Bond Fund Flows

Global Bond Fund Flows Over the past 3 months, investors have injected $160bn into bond funds, fearing a global recession. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Term Premium on a 10-Year Zero Coupon Bond

Term Premium on a 10-Year Zero Coupon Bond Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond remains in negative territory. Investors do not seem to fear rising rates over the long-term. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds.

Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bulls push above bears, but when doubt and fear are still present, it does not usually look like a major market top. Image: Reuters