S&P 500 vs. U.S. CEO Confidence Survey Economic Expectations The S&P 500 is in “Fear of Missing Out” mode, while CEO confidence has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Survey – U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession fears are fading and U.S. credit investors now see a 21% chance of recession over the next 12 months. It was 25% in September. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey
S&P 500 and Margin Debt Margin debt has still not recovered from last December’s lows. Usually, it is mostly bullish for stocks, because investors are still fearful. Image: Merk Investments
Cumulative Fund Flows: Global Equities and Global Government & Corporate Bonds $339 billion in inflows to bond funds globally, and $208 billion in outflows from global equity funds in 2019, as investors fear a global recession is on the horizon. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Historical Asset Performance At Turning Points in the Business Cycle Equity volatility is expected to increase over the next 12 months, as recession fears increase. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
S&P 500 Earnings and U.S. Capital Spending This chart shows that U.S. core capital spending is near a 20-year high. Are fears that U.S. companies may be curtailing spending plans overblown? The absence of dividend cuts also suggests that U.S. companies are confident in their future earnings potential. Image: The Leuthold Group
Search Interest for “Recession” Google search interest for “Recession” has declined. Is the fear gone? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Fund Flows Investors are flooding into gold as fears of a global slowdown mount. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Global Bond Fund Flows Over the past 3 months, investors have injected $160bn into bond funds, fearing a global recession. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Term Premium on a 10-Year Zero Coupon Bond Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond remains in negative territory. Investors do not seem to fear rising rates over the long-term. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds.
Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bulls push above bears, but when doubt and fear are still present, it does not usually look like a major market top. Image: Reuters