The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Historically Low But the FOMC projection suggests that the unemployment rate cannot improve indefinitely. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
The U.S. Unemployment Rate since 1890 Highest level in 1934: 21.30% Lowest level in 1944: 1.20% Today: 3.60% Image: Bianco Research
How Does Education Affect the Unemployment Rate? The chart below shows the unemployment rate by education and the importance of education for the unemployed. Image: Ben Casselman
Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…
Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great? Well, the unemployment level is the lowest since 1969, but when we compare the level of unemployment plus people not in the labor force, to the level of employment, the picture is not so rosy. Ouch!
U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019 This is the lowest level since 1969! Is this a sign of a booming economy? In any case, the U.S. economy does appear to be gaining momentum and that’s good news. See how the U.S. productivity has increased under Trump. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
U.S. Unemployment Change and Real Interest Rate at Time of Yield Curve Inversion Looking at real interest rates can provide some insight about the severity of a recession before it starts. This chart suggests that unemployment could increase significantly during the next recession.
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and Relative Performance of Bonds vs. Stocks Bonds tend to outperform stocks when U.S. initial unemployment claims rise. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed expects GDP growth of 6.5%, inflation of 2.4% and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% this year. Image: The Daily Shot
Earnings and U.S. Unemployment During Recessions On average, a recession lasts 11 months, earnings decline by 26.5%, nominal GDP falls by 1.9%, and the unemployment rate peaks at 7.5%. Image: LPL Research