The Unemployment Rate since 1890

The U.S. Unemployment Rate since 1890 Highest level in 1934: 21.30% Lowest level in 1944: 1.20% Today: 3.60% Image: Bianco Research

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…

Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great?

Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great? Well, the unemployment level is the lowest since 1969, but when we compare the level of unemployment plus people not in the labor force, to the level of employment, the picture is not so rosy. Ouch!

U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019

U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019 This is the lowest level since 1969!  Is this a sign of a booming economy? In any case, the U.S. economy does appear to be gaining momentum and that’s good news. See how the U.S. productivity has increased under Trump. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

Earnings and U.S. Unemployment During Recessions

Earnings and U.S. Unemployment During Recessions On average, a recession lasts 11 months, earnings decline by 26.5%, nominal GDP falls by 1.9%, and the unemployment rate peaks at 7.5%. Image: LPL Research