University of Michigan Survey – Consumer Who Expect Higher Unemployment over the Next 12 Months The latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers indicate that a significantly higher share of Americans now expect unemployment to rise over the next year, reaching the highest level since 2009. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Federal Funds Rate and ECB Deposit Rate Unlike the recent past, when inflation was high and interest rates were near zero, the Fed and ECB now have greater flexibility to cut rates if economic conditions worsen. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
GDP and Unemployment During U.S. Recessions The severity of a U.S. recession can be measured by the duration and magnitude of the increase in unemployment rate and the decline in real GDP. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and Relative Performance of Bonds vs. Stocks Bonds tend to outperform stocks when U.S. initial unemployment claims rise. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Earnings and U.S. Unemployment During Recessions On average, a recession lasts 11 months, earnings decline by 26.5%, nominal GDP falls by 1.9%, and the unemployment rate peaks at 7.5%. Image: LPL Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence and U.S. Unemployment A tight U.S. labor market and low interest rates should continue to support U.S. consumer confidence and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Unemployment Breadth and S&P 500 Year-over-year, the U.S. unemployment rate is rising in 30% of U.S. states, up from 18% in December 2018. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Consensus expectations for the August non-farm payrolls report suggest an increase of approximately 165,000 jobs, while the U.S. unemployment rate is projected to decline to 4.2%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research