Search Results for: unemployment rate

How Does Education Affect the Unemployment Rate? The chart below shows the unemployment rate by education and the importance of education for the unemployed. Image: Ben Casselman

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…

Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great? Well, the unemployment level is the lowest since 1969, but when we compare the level of unemployment plus people not in the labor force, to the level of employment, the picture is not so rosy. Ouch!

U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019 This is the lowest level since 1969!  Is this a sign of a booming economy? In any case, the U.S. economy does appear to be gaining momentum and that’s good news. See how the U.S. productivity has increased under Trump. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

U.S. Delinquencies, Personal Saving Rate and Unemployment Delinquencies in the United States are on the rise. Is a hard landing coming? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Unemployment Change and Real Interest Rate at Time of Yield Curve Inversion Looking at real interest rates can provide some insight about the severity of a recession before it starts. This chart suggests that unemployment could increase significantly during the next recession.

U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank

GDP and Unemployment During U.S. Recessions The severity of a U.S. recession can be measured by the duration and magnitude of the increase in unemployment rate and the decline in real GDP. Image: Alpine Macro

U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and Relative Performance of Bonds vs. Stocks Bonds tend to outperform stocks when U.S. initial unemployment claims rise. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy