U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
GDP and Unemployment During U.S. Recessions The severity of a U.S. recession can be measured by the duration and magnitude of the increase in unemployment rate and the decline in real GDP. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and Relative Performance of Bonds vs. Stocks Bonds tend to outperform stocks when U.S. initial unemployment claims rise. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Earnings and U.S. Unemployment During Recessions On average, a recession lasts 11 months, earnings decline by 26.5%, nominal GDP falls by 1.9%, and the unemployment rate peaks at 7.5%. Image: LPL Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence and U.S. Unemployment A tight U.S. labor market and low interest rates should continue to support U.S. consumer confidence and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Unemployment Breadth and S&P 500 Year-over-year, the U.S. unemployment rate is rising in 30% of U.S. states, up from 18% in December 2018. Image: Pictet Asset Management
NFIB Small Business Availability Loans vs. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Weak credit conditions, particularly when interest rates are high, can slow down the overall economy, leading to higher unemployment rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inequality – Monthly Income After Tax Minus Average Monthly Expenditures Greatest economy ever? Despite increasing wage growth and a low unemployment rate, half of the U.S. population spends more than their income. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research