What if Companies Paid Dividends Instead of Buybacks?

What if Companies Paid Dividends Instead of Buybacks? The S&P 500 Total Return (dividends reinvested) would have been 10% lower if buybacks subbed with dividends. But, are stock buybacks a good thing for shareholders? Yes, if done at a price below the intrinsic value of the company. Buybacks are a good substitute for dividends, because…

How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now?

How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…

Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell?

Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible negative effects in the USA – And at full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP

Is Inflation Dead?

Is Inflation Dead? Is this cover of Bloomberg Businessweek a contrarian indicator? Remember that dinosaurs evolved into birds over 50 million years. Do you think we will have to wait 50 million years for inflation to return? You may also like “How to Get Inflation?” and “Where Does Inflation Come From?“ Image: Bloomberg

The Average American Investor Still Underperforms the Market Over the Long Term

The Average American Investor Still Underperforms the Market Over the Long Term This is usually due to emotional biases, herding effect, lack of diversification, panic selling,… Most investors buy high and sell low at the wrong time. That’s the reason why using our formidable decision support tools will empower yourself to make much better investment…

Why Warren Buffett Says That Stocks Are Generally Better Than Bonds?

Why Warren Buffett says that stocks are generally better than bonds? Our equity risk premium model shows when the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note. Since 1970, the 10-year Treasury Note was less attractive than the US stock market over a 10-year…

Distinguished Speaker Series: Howard Marks, CFA

Distinguished Speaker Series: Howard Marks, CFA Legendary investor Howard Marks speaks about risk and return, cycles,… and how should we invest in a low-return world. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3OlVuGfhUQ

Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle’s Market Forecast

Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle’s Market Forecast Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle has done more for the average investor than any person in the financial industry. By the end of 2018, he tells us why he thinks returns will be lower in the coming years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5fX0CdESMk