S&P 500 Largest Pullbacks in the First Five Months of Each Year Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has performed the first five months of the year without a decline of at least a 2.5% pullback only once in 1995. Is a pullback for U.S. stocks approaching? Image: J.P. Morgan See S&P 500 Intra-Year…
Big Starts to a Year Can Produce Weak Results Going Forward While new all-time highs and consecutive winning streaks can produce above-average returns in the longer term, pullbacks are possible in the short term. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year“…
Unicorn IPOs, Are They Good Investments? Keep in mind that most IPOs lose money for investors after 5 years. Images: CNBC, Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
What if Companies Paid Dividends Instead of Buybacks? The S&P 500 Total Return (dividends reinvested) would have been 10% lower if buybacks subbed with dividends. But, are stock buybacks a good thing for shareholders? Yes, if done at a price below the intrinsic value of the company. Buybacks are a good substitute for dividends, because…
The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High, After 6 Months Without A Record High. So, What Now? Can history help us to predict the future? Here’s a bullish case: the S&P 500 has been higher 17 out of 18 times a year later, since 1954. Source: LPL Research
What Are the Advantages of a Geographically Diversified Portfolio? A geographically diversified portfolio may minimize drawdowns and the amount earned from compounding may grow faster over time. Image: Bridgewater Associates, LP
How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…
Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible negative effects in the USA – And at full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP
Is Inflation Dead? Is this cover of Bloomberg Businessweek a contrarian indicator? Remember that dinosaurs evolved into birds over 50 million years. Do you think we will have to wait 50 million years for inflation to return? You may also like “How to Get Inflation?” and “Where Does Inflation Come From?“ Image: Bloomberg
The Average American Investor Still Underperforms the Market Over the Long Term This is usually due to emotional biases, herding effect, lack of diversification, panic selling,… Most investors buy high and sell low at the wrong time. That’s the reason why using our formidable decision support tools will empower yourself to make much better investment…