S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The recent rally has made U.S. equities relatively expensive compared to bonds. Historically, when the risk premium has been at current levels, the S&P 500 has delivered an average 12-month return of only 2.5% over the past three decades. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning A reading of 0.0 on the Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator indicates neutral sentiment, which—based on historical patterns—is often followed by positive S&P 500 returns in the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After a >10% Quarter Since 1950, when a quarter’s return exceeds 10%, the next quarter typically performs better than average—gaining 4.7% on average compared to the overall average of 2.3%, and posting gains 85% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) High valuations in U.S. and global equity markets today often indicate a risk of lower future returns, unless earnings growth accelerates enough to justify these prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Weekly Bond Fund Flows Short-term bond funds continue to attract substantial investor capital due to their combination of safety, liquidity, and relatively stable returns amid market uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance Up YTD Between 5-10% at the Midpoint of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has been up between 5% and 10% by mid-year, the full-year performance has been positive 93% of the time, with an average annual return close to 14%, giving bulls ample reason to remain optimistic. Image: Carson…
Forward EPS YoY % Change vs. S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change Corporate earnings play a key role in shaping market performance. In 2025, the expected U.S. economic slowdown might limit their growth, challenging stock market returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Tech IPOs vs. Non-Tech IPOs Tech IPO shares have soared an average of 108% above their offering price. By comparison, non-tech IPOs have gained 49%, a solid return but significantly less than the surge seen in tech offerings. Image: Yahoo Finance
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums The low U.S. equity risk premium reflects a market where investors earn little to no additional expected return for taking on the higher risk of stocks compared to bonds. As a result, equity investing becomes more challenging. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research