S&P 500 vs. U.S. Treasuries Despite its all-time high, the S&P 500 is below the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Index. Picture Source: Bloomberg
Global Equity – Bond Flows According to Bernstein, the S&P 500 not far from its all-time high, could set a new record. Image: Berstein Research
Utilities-to-Gold & Silver Mining Stocks Ratio Since 1990 S&P 500 Utility Sector to Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index hits all-time high. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
The “Small Businesses Optimism Index” Is a Good Recession Indicator This is not the perfect recession indicator, but when the Small Businesses Optimism Index falls below 100 or more likely below 95, then the risk of a recession remains high. And when the Small Businesses Optimism Index hits an all-time high, a recession may occur…
Stock Buybacks Topped Capital Expenditures for the First Time since 2008 Thanks to corporate tax cuts, stock buybacks hit an all-time high and topped capital expenditures for the first time since 2008. As a reminder, 2008 was the start of the global financial crisis.
Big Starts to a Year Can Produce Weak Results Going Forward While new all-time highs and consecutive winning streaks can produce above-average returns in the longer term, pullbacks are possible in the short term. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year“…
Can History Help Us Predict the Future of the S&P 500? When the S&P 500 hits all-time high and AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bulls is below 35%, then 88% of the time the S&P 500 is positive one year later (1986-2019). Image: SentimenTrader
U.S. Misery Index and Average Forward Returns The U.S. misery index (core inflation + unemployment) is approaching all-time low, because both inflation and unemployment are very low. Historically, average forward returns have been higher than the overall S&P 500 average.