U.S. Unemployment Rate

U.S. Unemployment Rate Technical analysis suggests an upside risk to the U.S. unemployment rate in the second half of 2024, indicating potential challenges in sustaining job growth and stability in the labor market. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims After Yield Curve Inversion

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims After Yield Curve Inversion Is there a difference this time in the association between an inverted yield curve, usually indicating economic decline, and the potential for job losses? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States?

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 202,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.15% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…

S&P 500 Year-Over-Year Return Explained

S&P 500 Year-Over-Year Return Explained Chart suggesting that strong housing and jobs growth explain S&P 500 returns. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC