U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions

The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus Fed funds rate yield curve and recessions.

Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve is associated with slow economic growth or recessions. The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession. A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 could extend the business cycle.

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions