FMS Investors – Biggest “Tail Risk” Concerns about geopolitical conflict have risen among FMS investors, with 33% now viewing it as the biggest “tail risk” for the global economy, primarily due to its potential negative impact on financial markets and investments. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets and Fed Funds Rate The current environment suggests that a substantial amount of capital is poised to flow back into equity markets, driven by expectations of favorable economic conditions and monetary policy adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Dow Theory – Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average Currently, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has not confirmed the recent highs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is viewed as a bearish non-confirmation signal, indicating tactical risk in the market. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 and U.S. High Yield OAS The new cycle low in the U.S. high yield option-adjusted spread is seen as a promising signal for the S&P 500, supporting bullish expectations as we approach the end of the year. Image: BofA Global Research
Treasuries Flows BofA’s private clients are increasingly favoring U.S. Treasuries, particularly those with maturities between 2 to 10 years, as they anticipate a decline in yields in the near future. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 EPS Growth Consensus estimates suggest that 72% of S&P 500 companies are projected to report EPS growth in 3Q24, reflecting a broader trend of improving earnings outlooks across various sectors. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Advance-Decline Line The S&P 500 advance-decline line serves as an essential indicator of market trends and sentiment. When it hits an all-time high, it typically signals positive news for the U.S. stock market. Image: BofA Global Research
GWIM T-Bill Flows In light of the Fed’s recent rate cuts, BofA’s private clients are actively selling T-bills and strategically positioning themselves for potential gains in other asset classes. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Corporate Clients – Buybacks (4-Week Average) Strong buyback activity from BofA’s corporate clients, exceeding historical averages, is a positive sign for investors, reflecting confidence in future growth prospects. Image: BofA Securities
U.S. Deficits While higher deficits can stimulate economic growth and extend business cycles through increased government spending and investment, they also pose significant risks to long-term economic stability. Image: Deutsche Bank
FMS Investors – Average Percentile Rank of Growth Expectations, Cash Allocation, Equity Allocation The decline in pessimism among FMS investors is viewed as a positive indicator, suggesting a growing willingness to embrace risk. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey