Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Geopolitical tensions are clouding sentiment among U.S. equity fund managers in March, but confidence in the market and the economy remains intact, as many bet the shock will be short-lived. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.38% YoY in February. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. Public Opinion on Military Action in Iran Rising U.S. gasoline prices, together with the pushback against strikes on Iran, could push policymakers toward a brief and contained conflict. Image: J.P. Morgan
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals have become as pricey as defensives, leaving them vulnerable if confidence falters. Higher energy costs or trade disruptions could worsen the pressure by dampening activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 16%, only a touch above the long-term average, pointing to a relatively calm risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Positioning Equity positioning has edged just below neutral, opening the door to further upside if momentum kicks in. For now, that spark is missing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Risk Appetite Indicator Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator has slipped after recent events, sitting just below neutral, as markets take a more defensive stance. Market sentiment has clearly cooled amid growing uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has lasted eight years and delivered 288% gains. With this one only in its fourth, there’s good reason to think the run isn’t done. Image: Carson Investment Research
Geopolitical Risk Index Geopolitical risk has risen sharply and this often coincides with higher equity volatility and risk‑off behavior in markets. Markets hate uncertainty, and geopolitics never fail to deliver it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations U.S. households are not fully buying the Fed’s inflation fight. One‑year expectations sit at 3%, above the 2% target, and longer‑term expectations aren’t much different. For most families, everyday costs haven’t eased much. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Market breadth across the S&P 500 deteriorated sharply last week, a warning sign that strength at the index level may be masking underlying fragility. That’s not usually what the bulls want to see. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research