S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 has spent much of the last 12 months trailing international benchmarks, something investors don’t see often. But should the U.S. dollar find its footing, the advantage enjoyed by emerging and foreign markets may not last. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX Investors are pricing high-yield credit as if the good times will roll on. Spreads are tight, fundamentals look firm, but that very optimism risks shading into complacency. Active monitoring helps detect early signs of stress. Image: Topdown Charts
Deviation of Earnings Above-Below Long Term Growth Trend vs. Valuations When earnings drift too far from their long-term growth trend, markets tend to close the gap painfully. The gap widening today points to risks still under the radar. Image: Real Investment Advice
Real Price of Gold Per Ounce Gold’s nominal price has climbed past its 1980 peak, but once you factor in inflation, it’s far less frothy than it looks. The market hasn’t lost its head, at least not yet. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite is flagging 2026 as a bullish but choppy year, and for now, the market is playing along with that seasonal script. Image: Ned Davis Research
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.1% in December. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 16%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
S&P 500 and Equity ETF Flows Equity ETFs remain money magnets, pulling in about $5.6 billion a day since the start of the year, up from $3.5 billion in 2025. Flows don’t lie: risk appetite is alive and well. Image: Strategas Asset Management
Equity Sector Flows Investors are rotating out of high-growth tech stocks, where outflows have accelerated on overvaluation fears, and back into defensive and “old economy” sectors. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility When markets are calm, systematic strategies often stay heavily long equities to capture steady gains, a stance that can sting once volatility returns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Analysts are turning more cautious on U.S. earnings as growth concerns deepen, raising the risk of near-term pressure on stock valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research