S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish, slashing their net long positions in major U.S. equity index futures—E-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P Midcap, and Russell 2000—to levels not seen since late 2023. Image: Bloomberg
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Consensus estimates indicate that S&P 500 EPS will grow about 9% in 2025, followed by a 14% increase in 2026. This outlook highlights the resilience of the corporate sector despite persistent economic uncertainty and trade challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Spot Price and Russell 3000 Gold Miners Subindustry Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold over the next 12 months, projecting a 14% rise driven by central bank demand and anticipated rate cuts, with even greater gains possible in riskier scenarios. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. 20+-Year U.S. Treasuries U.S. stocks continue to outperform bonds in an ongoing post-pandemic risk-on rally, despite periods of volatility. Market sentiment remains tilted toward risk assets. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Labor Market – Job Openings per Unemployed Worker The ratio of U.S. job openings to unemployed workers below 1 indicates labor market weakness, with policy uncertainty and slowing demand increasing the likelihood of a September Fed rate cut. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices function like a tax, reducing disposable income and increasing business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are typically brief as demand falls and markets adjust accordingly. Image: Real Investment Advice
Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors Investor allocation to equities has reached an all-time high, driven by retail enthusiasm and strong performance. However, rising valuations and concentrated leadership call for careful risk management. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio with 10-Year Total Returns Valuations don’t matter—until they do. Over the past 150 years, high valuations have been a sign of poor forward returns, with negative real returns over 10 years following the last three major valuation peaks. Image: Deutsche Bank
Share of Global Market Capitalization With 65% of the world’s equity market, the United States dominates global finance, drawing capital and setting trends that few others can match. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of Top 5 Companies by Market Capitalization in the S&P 500 The U.S. equity market is highly concentrated in just a few mega-cap tech companies. While this does not definitively mean the U.S. is in a bubble, investors face uncharted waters as performance hinges on a few key players. Image: Deutsche Bank
World Technology vs. World Ex. TMT Continuous technological innovation, resilience, and the expanding societal dependence on technology strongly underpin the tech sector’s prospects for sustained market outperformance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research