S&P 500 Annualized 1-Month Volatility In this post-election year, the current period indicates increased volatility ahead for U.S. stocks, reinforcing the need for cautious risk management during this sensitive stage of the cycle. Image: Nautilus Research
U.S. Fund Flows Since 2023, cash and bonds have attracted substantial inflows, driven by central bank policy shifts, investor preferences for income and safety, and broader macroeconomic factors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Seasonality – Monthly Median Return on Global 10y+ Goverment Bonds Long-term government bonds globally face a challenging September due to seasonality and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, reinforcing historical trends of September being their worst-performing month annually. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Monthly Rank Historically, September is the worst-performing month for U.S. stocks—this holds true for the past 10 years, 20 years, and going back to 1950. It is rare to see both August and September finish higher in a post-election year. Image: Carson Investment Research
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech stocks stands at the 42nd percentile, indicating potential for further growth and increased investor interest. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Announced Share Buybacks in the U.S. The ongoing pipeline of stock repurchase programs demonstrates strong confidence among executives and continues to underpin the U.S. stock market through 2025 and beyond. Image: Bloomberg
Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows While the technology, industrial, and financial sectors have attracted substantial inflows over the past year, the energy and health care sectors have experienced notable outflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
New S&P 500 Index All-Time Highs Per Year Yesterday, the S&P 500 hit its nineteenth record high of 2025, underscoring persistent market optimism. The index has gained 10.55% so far this year, driven by robust corporate earnings and steady economic data. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 October has a reputation for delivering gains in the S&P 500, but the ride is rarely smooth, with volatility and uncertainty often clouding the rally. Image: Topdown Charts
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.80%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
U.S. Household Net Worth as % of Disposal Personal Income While the U.S. household net worth has risen to historic levels due to assets like stocks and real estate, AI-driven financial gains mainly benefit the richest, increasing the wealth gap. Image: Deutsche Bank