Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage With gross leverage remaining high and net leverage near its historical norm, hedge funds are able to sustain increased trading activity without markedly increasing their net market exposure. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Buybacks In 2025, record share buybacks show that S&P 500 companies remain confident in their financial health and committed to shareholder returns amid economic uncertainties. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Return Around First Fed Cut After Being on Hold for 6+ Months Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after at least six months of holding rates steady, U.S. stocks have often posted strong returns in the subsequent 12 months, particularly if economic growth persists. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields with Various Moving Averages When the Fed prioritizes the labor market over inflation, it can reduce the immediate risk of recession by sustaining employment. However, this is likely to increase inflation expectations and push yields higher. Image: J.P. Morgan
China’s Stock Performance – CSI 300 Index vs. M1 Money Sypply YoY Growth The growth rate of the M1 money supply, a key driver of liquidity and investment capacity, tends to correlate with China’s stock market. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Real Yields and Gold Gold’s typical inverse link to real rates is fundamental, but inflation expectations, central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and investor sentiment driven by debt and fiscal worries can disrupt this relationship for extended periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After 90-90 Days The NYSE “90/90 day” on Friday—when 90% of volume and stocks rose—is rare and bullish. Since 1980, such days often precede strong market gains, with the S&P 500 rising over 90% of the time a year later, averaging 23% gains.
S&P 500 Valuation Several long-term valuation metrics indicate that the S&P 500 is significantly overvalued. Historically, elevated valuations like these have typically led to below-average long-term equity returns. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders exhibit some optimism for a Fed rate cut at the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting, with a 75% probability assigned to a 25 basis point reduction. Image: CME Group
Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI With the Fed funds rate still running well above inflation, policy looks overly tight—and investors are betting on deeper rate cuts to follow. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Return After the Fed Waits Between 5-12 Months to Cut Since 1970, whenever the Fed has waited between 5 and 12 months to cut rates, the US stock market has delivered positive returns 90.9% of the time over the following 12 months, with a median gain of 14.5%—giving bulls plenty of reason to…