S&P 500 Index Returns and Santa Claus Rally Santa Claus skipped Wall Street this year, and for the bulls, that’s often a warning the new year may bring choppier trading. Will this time be any different? Image: Carson Investment Research
Median S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock remains elevated, climbing to 2.7%. The rise, though, appears driven more by hedging activity than by outright fear or speculative panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin Price and Moving Averages Bitcoin’s recovery above its 50-day moving average after sharp drops like the one in early October 2025 typically signals the start of a potential reversal or at least a move toward steadier ground. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Drawdown to Subsequent Three-Year Trough When U.S. equity valuations soar and just a handful of giants drive the gains, history rarely smiles and often follows with sharp corrections or years of going nowhere. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cash to Total Assets S&P 500 and S&P 500 Ex-Financials The corporate cash cushion is thinning. S&P 500 firms have slashed their reserves from pandemic peaks, redirecting capital toward AI infrastructure, growth projects, and buybacks in a world where cash no longer comes cheap. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy and Global Quantitative Research
Share of S&P 500 Annual Return Contributed by the 10 Largest Stocks In 2025, just 10 stocks generated more than half of the S&P 500’s gains, a reminder that the market’s engine is running on a few powerful cylinders. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has rarely delivered average returns in any given year. Will 2026 keep the winning streak alive with another year of double‑digit gains? Image: Carson Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 18%, slightly higher than average and consistent with a moderate risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM Equity flows usually pick up in the new year amid the “January effect,” when investors return with renewed confidence and reposition their portfolios. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Concentration The U.S. stock market is as concentrated as it has been in decades, but history is full of similar moments, from the railroad boom of 1900 to the dominance of mega-caps in the 1930s and 1960s. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Chinese Stocks (iShares China Large-Cap ETF) Since early 2024, Chinese stocks have shown significant outperformance relative to US stocks, amid policy support, tech advancements, and attractive valuations. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond