MOVE Index and Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has exhibited a strong inverse correlation with rates volatility, though this pattern can fluctuate based on market conditions and investor behavior. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) The S&P 500 is still enjoying positive earnings sentiment, but momentum has cooled amid concerns over demand, margins and broader economic uncertainties. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold – Global Central Bank Holdings Central bank gold demand cycles respond to global economic and political factors. Recently, demand has increased amid financial instability, currency trust concerns, inflation, sanctions, and geopolitical conflicts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS Growth Analysts project 7% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 in both Q3 and Q4 of 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Weekly Bond Fund Flows Bond funds continue to attract substantial inflows, remaining appealing investment vehicles amid inflation control efforts, modest economic growth, and uncertain interest rate trajectories. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Citi U.S. Earnings Revision Index and S&P 500 Index The strong trend in earnings upgrades and positive forward guidance explains why the S&P 500 has repeatedly reached new record highs, reflecting solid corporate profitability and optimistic analyst outlooks for the near-term future. Image: Bloomberg
Median 1-Year U.S. Inflation by Party Inflation expectations in the U.S. over the coming 12 months differ sharply along partisan lines, with Republicans anticipating low inflation and Democrats expecting it to rise significantly. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Tariff Costs Goldman Sachs forecasts that by October 2025, U.S. businesses will absorb just 8% of Trump-era tariff costs—down from 64%—while the share borne by U.S. consumers rises to 67%. This shift is expected to drive consumer prices higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Monthly U.S. Equity Mutual Fund and ETF Flows Weak U.S. equity fund flows indicate investor concerns about trade policy uncertainty, which is dampening economic growth and increasing market volatility, alongside a cautious near-term outlook for U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks The NFIB Small Business Survey’s annual rate of change closely mirrors U.S. small-cap stock performance, making the NFIB index a key economic indicator for investors in this market segment. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 vs. Trend Line Growth Long-term trend charts show the S&P 500 trading significantly above its historical growth trajectory, with valuations at elevated levels—implying that U.S. equities are overvalued by traditional measures. Image: Ned Davis Research