U.S. Consumer Confidence in Higher Stock Prices vs. S&P 500 Trailing Valuations Confidence in future stock gains is fueling higher valuations, with investors paying up for growth they believe will last. But that conviction could prove fragile if those expectations falter. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Returns vs. Drawdowns in Midterm Election Years Midterm years often test Wall Street’s nerve. Since 1930, the S&P 500 has typically fallen around 20% on average at some point, but those pullbacks have often marked the start of strong buying opportunities. Image: Ned Davis Research
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers is waning as optimism over market returns cools from record highs. Political jitters, stretched valuations, and policy uncertainty now dominate the mood. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Valuations Across EM Markets The valuation gap in emerging markets is striking: India trades at a premium, whereas China’s pricing feels more in line with its history. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -2.33% YoY in January. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. Big Tech’s Capital Expenditures Tech titans Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft plan to spend $650 billion this year into AI data centers, chips, and infrastructure, up 60% from last year as the race for AI dominance intensifies despite mounting execution risks. Image: Bloomberg
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast to 2.73% from 2.59% a week earlier, a marginal shift that still points to steady economic momentum. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Macro Valuation Measure (S&P 500) U.S. stocks look rich compared with what today’s macro backdrop would normally justify. In previous cycles, such lofty valuations at these levels have often paved the way for years of subdued returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 Bitcoin has closely tracked the Nasdaq 100 in recent years, mirroring shifts in market sentiment and risk appetite. That link is also relatively visible now, as the speculative mood encounters turbulence. Image: Topdown Charts
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators The mood is bullish for now, and we’re not near the extremes. Market participants aren’t showing signs of fatigue just yet, at least until the next headline hits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Margin Debt as Percentage of Real Disposal Personal Income Margin debt sits at a record share of real disposable income. With incomes stagnating and borrowing surging, investors look vulnerable. Markets appear calm, for now, but they can turn fast. Image: Real Investment Advice