Performance – S&P 500 Total Return Index vs. Spot Gold vs. Spot Silver U.S. stocks are rising, but metals are shining brighter. Gold, and even more so silver, have surged since the precious-metals move accelerated, leaving equities lagging as investors tilt toward hard assets. Image: Bloomberg
Valuation – PEG Ratio between U.S. and Europe As equity returns broaden in 2025, the PEG ratio gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world is narrowing. This convergence in growth-adjusted valuations is likely to extend into 2026, even if U.S. valuations remain lofty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Arithmetic Average Annual Real Return of S&P 500 over Different Periods Since 2009, S&P 500 investors enjoyed annualized real returns about 50% above the 1900+ historic average, fueled by low rates, QE, and post-crisis recovery. With those supports behind us, forward returns may revert toward historic norms. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Single Day Average Returns December 26 tends to put Wall Street in a good mood. Since 1950, it has been the S&P 500’s second-best day of the year, averaging a 0.49% gain, just behind October 28. Image: Carson Investment Research
Market Capitalization – The Smartphone Revolution The iPhone’s 2007 launch ignited a smartphone revolution that sent the market capitalizations of U.S. giants like Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta skyrocketing. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Options: % of S&P 500 Listed Volume Expiring within 24 Hours The frenzy in S&P 500 options expiring within 24 hours shows no sign of cooling, now making up more than 62% of total volume and amplifying short-term volatility through fast-turn bets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers Equity positioning is far from stretched. Asset managers haven’t returned to their peak long bets in U.S. stock futures, and with resilient growth, easier policy, and firm earnings, the rally may have more room to run into 2026. Image: Bloomberg
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The relative performance of cyclical stocks versus defensives currently signals market expectations for real U.S. GDP growth of 2%, below Goldman Sachs’ 2.6% forecast for 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Targets If valuations stay where they are, the S&P 500 index could finish 2026 around 7,330, assuming a 26 times multiple on $282 in forward earnings. Image: Real Investment Advice
Gold Price Forecast Gold could glitter brighter in the years ahead, with Yardeni Research projecting a run to $6,000 by 2026 and $10,000 by 2030 on the back of deep fiscal deficits, money-printing excess, and mounting global tensions. Image: Yardeni Research
Russell 2000 Annual EPS Growth Analysts are betting big on 2026, forecasting a 60% surge in U.S. small-cap earnings, fueled by Fed easing, deregulation, and fiscal tailwinds. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research