U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Leading Indicator) Sales of U.S. heavy trucks tend to lead the economic cycle. When they drop, unemployment usually starts rising about six months later. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and 50-Day Moving Average After holding above its 50-day moving average, a key level traders watch to gauge momentum, the S&P 500 slipped below that support Wednesday as sellers came back into the market. Image: Bloomberg
Bitcoin Annual Returns Bitcoin is sliding toward a year of losses, and this one comes without the usual chaos. No fraud, no implosion, just a quieter, more mature market learning that pain isn’t always tied to panic. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains While some volatility is likely, momentum still favors the bulls. After a powerful run from 2023 to 2025, the S&P 500 Index could find a short-term bottom in the fall of 2026 before pushing toward 7,700 by year-end. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Gold Price (5-Year Rolling Change) and World Military Expenses When governments ramp up military spending, gold tends to sparkle. Rising geopolitical risks and looser fiscal policy weaken paper currencies and revive inflation worries, sending investors back to bullion. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Earnings Growth The gap between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the S&P 500 is expected to narrow, paving the way for a broader, more balanced earnings landscape across the index in 2026 and 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Current Account Balance as a % of GDP The U.S. current account deficit has been on a widening path since 2019 and looks poised to stay elevated into 2026. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscalers are on pace to spend $4 trillion on capex by 2030, more than ten times what the Apollo program cost in today’s dollars, a bet that leaves little room for error. Image: Bloomberg
Retail Traders Average Portfolio Stock Allocation and Investment Managers Average Stock Exposure Over the past two decades, periods when both retail and professional traders were this heavily long have often been followed by S&P 500 underperformance in the following one to three months. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Average Return in December With the holidays in sight, buyers are starting to reappear. History shows U.S. stocks often find a floor around mid-December and rally into year-end, a seasonal lift the bulls never seem to tire of. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – Shiller CAPE Ratio for the S&P 500 The Shiller CAPE has pushed above 40, approaching the 44-times peak seen at the height of the dot-com frenzy. Such rich valuations have often signaled markets running hot. Image: Deutsche Bank Research