S&P 500 Year-End Target Oppenheimer projects strong gains for the S&P 500 supported by macroeconomic fundamentals, progress in trade deals, and structural technological shifts, with a year-end 2025 target of 7,100 points implying continued robust performance. Image: Bloomberg
Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth Over the next three years, higher tariffs are expected to slow U.S. GDP growth by 1.7%, as they raise costs for consumers and businesses, fuel inflation, and drag on economic expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Net Call Volume for the Most Shorted Stocks vs the Rest The recent rally in the most shorted stocks has been fueled by a surge in net call volumes, driven largely by retail investor enthusiasm and speculative options trading. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
EPS – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates A 14% consensus EPS growth forecast for the S&P 500 next year may be plausible, but some analysts regard it as optimistic, awaiting further confirmation from corporate earnings and macroeconomic developments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After 63 Days Above the 20-Day Moving Average After closing above its 20-day moving average for 63 straight days, the S&P 500 has, in the past, continued to rise over the following 3 months, achieving median gains of 3.4% and positive returns every time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Performance of the Most Shorted Stocks vs the Russell 3000 The recent three-month period has been exceptionally strong for the most heavily shorted stocks outside the pandemic boom, driven significantly by retail investors and short squeeze dynamics. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Speculative Trading Indicator 3-Month Changes While the U.S. stock market may continue rallying in the near term due to strong earnings and positive trade developments, the heightened speculative activity raises the risk of a notable pullback in the foreseeable future. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance of the Most Shorted Stocks Relative to Russell 3000 Over the last 3 1/2 months, the most heavily shorted stocks have experienced extraordinary rallies, significantly outperforming the broader market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Credit Card Debt Rising credit card debt shows weakened repayment discipline and financial strain from inflation in basic living costs, creating a feedback loop where increased debt and fees further hinder consumers’ ability to restore financial stability. Image: Yahoo Finance
U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio While high P/E ratios in US tech stocks may indicate promising growth, they also warn investors of potential overvaluation and the risk of sharp market downturns. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 – 13-Week and 26-Week Moving Average The S&P 500 shows a positive medium-term trend, indicated by moving average crossover signals. Specifically, the 13-week moving average remains above the 26-week moving average and continues to rise, typically signaling sustained bullish momentum. Image: Bloomberg