U.S. NonFarm Employment Annual Growth The YOY job growth rate of 1.1% is a warning sign, as similar levels have coincided with periods just before or during recessions since 1950, supporting the case for the Fed to consider easing monetary policy soon. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at historically low levels, equity investors face a more challenging environment, as the risk-reward trade-off is less attractive than before. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Debt Held by Public as Share of GDP Rising U.S. federal debt could lead to higher interest payments, reduced investment and growth, fewer jobs, lower wages, and less flexibility for the government to respond to future challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI All-Country World Index and RSI (14) Signs of overheating are emerging in global stocks, with technical and flow indicators nearing thresholds that have previously triggered sell signals. Image: Bloomberg
Economy-Wide Firm AI Adoption Rate While AI adoption among firms continues to expand, its growth is slowing as the market shifts from early rapid uptake to a more mature phase. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations While high CAPE ratios can persist in markets for years, history suggests these elevated valuations often precede eras of subdued stock returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
Length of Bull Markets and When They Started The current bull market, which began in October 2022, remains relatively young by historical standards and could persist much longer than bearish observers expect. Image: Carson Investment Research
Cumulative Flows in All Bitcoin Funds and Gold ETF Holdings The past month has seen a clear preference for Bitcoin over gold among investors, driven by a shift toward riskier assets, robust technical performance, and accelerating ETF inflows into Bitcoin. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index The recent decline in the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that the economy is currently underperforming analysts’ expectations. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Small-Cap Stocks – Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 While U.S. small-cap stocks have notably underperformed large caps for an extended period, history suggests that such cycles are not unusual and are often followed by multi-year stretches of small-cap outperformance. Image: Bloomberg
Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events While geopolitical events can cause short-term market volatility, historical evidence shows that U.S. stocks tend to recover and grow over the long term. Image: Carson Investment Research