Forward Three-Month S&P 500 Performance Following U.S. Presidential Election The S&P 500 tends to do much better if the President is re-elected. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Elections – Implied Probabilities for the Five Scenarios for Congress The odds of a Democratic sweep remain relatively high. Image: BofA
U.S. Fiscal Deficit as a Percent of GDP and Fiscal Thrust Is too much stimulus better than too little? Image: BCA Research
AA Returns Next 4 Years under S&P 500 and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Assumptions Investors should expect much lower returns over the next 4 years, unless the S&P 500 can rally to 5,800. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield and Asset Allocation In a low yield environment, does a 40% bond allocation still make sense? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
China Real GDP vs. U.S. Real GDP Chart suggesting that China real GDP will overtake U.S. real GDP after 2028. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
GWIM Macro Sentiment Barometer The GWIM macro sentiment barometer has turned negative. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Dollar/Renminbi Exchange Rate and 10-Year Government Bond Yield, China Minus U.S. China’s yield advantage supports the appreciation of the renminbi. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Real GDP Forecast – Democratic Sweep vs. Republican Sweep This chart suggests what would Trump’s and Biden’s policies mean for U.S. real GDP. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Real GDP – Economic Booms and Buts U.S. real GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3 2020, one of the strongest on record. Image: CNBC
Global Money Supply and MSCI World Index Global equities are around 1 standard devation vs. global money supply. It could be bullish for stocks, as global money supply growth tends to push equities higher. Image: Nordea and Macrobond