Consecutive Trading Days Without a 2% Drop in the S&P 500 While the S&P 500’s 108-session run without a 2% drop is striking, history offers several precedents of calm periods that were just as long—or even longer. Image: Bloomberg
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. equities have surged to record highs, even as the dollar remains under pressure amid mixed economic signals and policy shifts. Image: Bloomberg
Full-Year Real GDP Growth Trade barriers, shifting immigration policies, and broader uncertainty are expected to keep the U.S. economy from reaching its potential this year, despite ongoing technological investments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Fund Rate Forecasts Nomura projects two further rate cuts this year, followed by three more in March, June, and September of next year, bringing the terminal rate to 2.875%. Image: Nomura
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII bull-bear spread points to a balanced mood among U.S. retail investors who expect stock prices to decline in the near term—a condition that could set the stage for a sharper move in either direction. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies ranking in the 92nd percentile continue to show a strong bullish bias in equities, driven by robust technical momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index Returns in September Late September is often a banana-peel moment for U.S. stocks, when markets have a tendency to slip. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) Over the past 35 years, the S&P 500’s profit margin has climbed from 5% to 12% and has held at high levels in recent years, with forecasts pointing to continued growth in 2026 and 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) The recent decline in U.S. 10-year real yields points to growing investor caution, with labor market softening fueling bets on more Fed easing ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 TTM EPS Growth Strong EPS growth, combined with Fed rate cuts, often fuels equities by reducing funding costs, boosting investment and sustaining earnings momentum—the classic drivers of bull markets. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Corporate Equities Market Value Outstanding vs. Monetary Base vs. Nominal GDP Quantitative easing expands the monetary base, alongside a rising federal deficit, a combination that usually boosts financial asset prices but delivers mixed and modest impacts on overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard