CTAs Exposure to the U.S. Dollar After betting against the U.S. dollar, Commodity Trading Advisors are easing up on their shorts and edging toward neutral. Few will be surprised as the greenback finds support when the world gets nervous. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies have slipped to neutral, with positioning now in the 40th percentile, as higher volatility has triggered a recent bout of de-risking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Brent Crude Oil Price in Real Terms The longer the oil shock drags on, the greater the risk it spills into the broader economy. For now, traders are betting this surge won’t last, expecting that tensions will cool and prices will retreat. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History The S&P 500 Financials sector still trades at a discount versus other sectors, while Energy now looks pricey. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The conflict in the Middle East is set to drag U.S. growth well below trend, with the economy losing steam in the second half as fiscal tailwinds fade and tighter financial conditions bite. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession Probability Recession odds in the U.S. have dropped to levels that favor continued growth rather than an imminent slump. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years usually make U.S. stocks more volatile, with policy uncertainty running high before voters head to the polls. Investors hate uncertainty, and election years bring plenty of it. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates The Middle East conflict hasn’t shaken Wall Street’s confidence. Analysts see S&P 500 earnings climbing 17% in both 2026 and 2027, while small caps may deliver a 43% profit surge this year and a further 32% next. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary Investor Positioning With exposure sitting at the 19th percentile, discretionary investors remain notably cautious. Any shift in sentiment could open the door to further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have tactically reduced their equity exposure recently to the 43rd percentile, though their positioning stays firmly on the long side. The move shows they’re cautiously optimistic. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Brent Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 oil price forecast, now seeing Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel and WTI at $79, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on edge. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research