S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) Over the past 35 years, the S&P 500’s profit margin has climbed from 5% to 12% and has held at high levels in recent years, with forecasts pointing to continued growth in 2026 and 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Investor appetite for risk stays firm, with flows and sentiment aligned toward optimism, reinforced by accommodative Fed policy and robust corporate earnings. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) The recent decline in U.S. 10-year real yields points to growing investor caution, with labor market softening fueling bets on more Fed easing ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 TTM EPS Growth Strong EPS growth, combined with Fed rate cuts, often fuels equities by reducing funding costs, boosting investment and sustaining earnings momentum—the classic drivers of bull markets. Image: TS Lombard
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 24.4%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Momentum remains the engine for systematic strategies, in sharp contrast to discretionary investors, who take a more cautious, neutral stance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History With the equal-weighted index at 17x forward earnings and the S&P 500 at 23x, the premium shows how much faith investors are placing in the giants at the top of the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Corporate Equities Market Value Outstanding vs. Monetary Base vs. Nominal GDP Quantitative easing expands the monetary base, alongside a rising federal deficit, a combination that usually boosts financial asset prices but delivers mixed and modest impacts on overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard
Seasonality – NASDAQ Cycle Composite September is often a weaker month for the NASDAQ, but the Fed’s non-recessionary rate cuts are helping to counter that trend, fueling momentum and boosting investor confidence. Image: Ned Davis Research
Financial Gold Models Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast to an average of $4,000 per ounce for 2026, driven by strong central bank buying, a weakening U.S. dollar, expected Fed rate cuts, and ongoing global uncertainties. Image: Deutsche Bank
Announced Share Repurchases (U.S. Buybacks) The surge in S&P 500 buybacks this year, backed by solid earnings, liquidity, and targeted capital allocation, marks a pivotal year for shareholder value and market gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity and Quantitative Strategy