Secular Bull Market Analogs – 1949-1968 vs. S&P 500 since 2009 This chart compares the secular bull market of 1949-1968 vs. the S&P 500 since 2009. In 1962, the breadth thrust was about the same as today. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Dollar and Equity Market Bottom In the last recession, the U.S. dollar topped at the equity market bottom. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Actual and Estimated New Coronavirus Cases in the U.S. This chart suggests a potential second wave of infections in the United States in the fall of 2020. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Tech Sector Share Buyback Announcements There’s no sign of a pause in U.S. tech buybacks, as strong earnings keep the pipeline active. That’s a tailwind for shareholders, and as long as profits hold up, the pace is unlikely to fade. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Global Quarterly Real GDP Growth Morgan Stanley forecasts global quarterly real GDP growth at -5.2% in Q2 2020. Image: Morgan Stanley Reasearch
Implied Trailing 12-Month Buybacks Goldman Sachs expects a sharp decline in buybacks in 2020 and 2021, suggesting less support for stock prices and slower EPS growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Typical Peak to Trough Decline in S&P 500 Net Margins The peak to trough decline in S&P 500 net margins is 168 bp on average during past recessions. Goldman Sachs expects a contraction in net margin by 200 bp in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Contributions to the Increase in the Unemployment Rate by Industry-Occupation Pair Goldman Sachs expects a nearly 12% increase in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index vs. Reported EPS This chart shows the very high correlation between stock prices and earnings since 1871 (R² = 0.97) Image: Fidelity Investments
Record Money Market Fund Inflows Money market funds get record inflow, as investors flood into the safety of cash. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Bear Market – S&P 500 Lows Compared to Initial Jobless Claims vs. Unemployment Rate The S&P 500 tends to bottom several weeks before the peak in jobless claims. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC