Author: isabelnet

Small Caps Relative Performance Leads the S&P 500 Index This chart suggests that small caps relative performance leads the S&P 500 Index by six months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Valuation Gap Between High and Low Dividend Yield Stocks This chart shows that the valuation gap between high and low dividend yield stocks is almost the widest ever. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Government Bond Fund Flows Over the last six months, U.S. government bond fund flows have been the largest since 1985. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Demographics – Older Societies Have Lower Inflation This interesting chart shows again that an aging population leads to lower inflation (R² = 0.45). Image: Oxford Economics

S&P 500 EPS vs. U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Profits Creative accounting is imaginative ways to present accounts. The divergences between earnings and U.S. nonfinancial corporate profits occur before recessions. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Every Day of the U.S. Stock Market for the Last 10 Years Interesting chart showing that moves over 1% have been quite rare over the last 10 years. Picture souce: Chartr Ltd

U.S. Business Cycle Indicator The Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is still in “downturn.” The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Image: Pictet Asset Management

S&P 500 Average Stock Price The S&P 500 average stock price reaches a new high, due to the absence of stock splits. Image: Strategas

Fed Funds Rate Leads Money-Market Fund Inflows The chart suggests that Fed funds rate leads money-market fund inflows by two years. Money-market fund inflows stop when risk becomes attractive again. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

S&P 500 Maximum Intra-Year Drawdown Since 1950, the average maximum drawdown for the S&P 500 is -13.5% and the median is -10.6%. You may also like “S&P 500 Index Drawdowns From 2 Year Highs.” Image: LPL Research