Was the US Stock Market Crash on October 19, 1987, a “Black Swan” Event? A “Black Swan” is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise with a major effect, which is extremely difficult to predict. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The US stock market on October 19, 1987,…
Howard Marks on market’s record highs, potential risks Howard Marks speaks about market’s record highs and doesn’t see a lot of euphoria. However, we are in a Fed-induced bubble due to ultra low rates.
What are the Average Interest Rates for Fixed-Rate Mortgages Since the Great Recession? Keep in mind that mortgage lending is down, because there aren’t enough houses on the market to meet demand and the increase in rates does not help either since 2017. However, the decline in interest rates since the end of 2018, helps…
Why Buying Stocks At All-Time Highs Has Been Successful Over the Long Term? The S&P 500 hits all-time high. If history help us to predict the future, buying stocks at all-time highs has been successful over the long term. Image: LPL Research
Visualizing How Americans Spend Their Money The Consumer Expenditure Survey is a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey that collects information on the buying habits of U.S. consumers. Image: howmuch.net
Does Berkshire Hathaway Still Have a Market-Beating Advantage Over the Long Run? We can ask ourselves if Berkshire Hathaway does still have a market-beating advantage over the long run, because Warren Buffett expects a very modest outperformance vs. the market over the next decade. But he can’t guarantee that, of course. Image: Financial Times
Can History Help Us Predict the Future of the S&P 500? When the S&P 500 hits all-time high and AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bulls is below 35%, then 88% of the time the S&P 500 is positive one year later (1986-2019). Image: SentimenTrader
Why Is the Dollar So Strong? There are several reasons for this: – Interest rates differential – Strong American economy and no immediate recession– American geopolitical dominance– Market shadow over Donald Trump’s re-election Image: The Daily Shot
Ken Fisher: ‘Third year of a president’s term is positive’ “…because political risk aversion falls as you get to increase gridlock which happends in every midterm election.” Billionaire Ken Fisher thinks there is room to run for the stock market this year. But don’t try to time the market and keep your investment strategy simple.
What Will Cause The Next Recession – Paul Krugman On UBI And More Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman speaks about the next recession, income inequality vs. growth, wages, universal basic income (UBI), redistribution and geographic inequality. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja2PY2CnpOQ
The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High, After 6 Months Without A Record High. So, What Now? Can history help us to predict the future? Here’s a bullish case: the S&P 500 has been higher 17 out of 18 times a year later, since 1954. Source: LPL Research