Author: isabelnet

“Price is what you pay…” – Warren Buffett Quote of the day: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” –Warren Buffett

Real Three-month Yield vs. Recessions Historically prior to every recession, the three-month yield exceeded inflation by almost 200 basis points since 1960. Today, the real three-month yield (adjusted for inflation) is just above zero. If history helps us to predict the future, then this cycle should not end any time soon. Source: Bloomberg, Myron Scholes

US Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions This interesting chart shows the US yield curve inversion (10y-2y spread) and recessions. Historically, by ending the rate hiking cycle before an inversion, the expansion has still some legs and the next recession is postponed. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Guide to the Markets” for Q2 2019

“Money never made a man happy yet…” – Benjamin Franklin Quote of the day: “Money never made a man happy yet, nor will it. The more a man has, the more he wants. Instead of filling a vacuum, it makes one.” –Benjamin Franklin

Recession Length and Real Interest Rate at Time of Yield Curve Inversion This chart shows the recession length and real interest rate at time of yield curve Inversion. Looking at real interest rates can provide some insight about the severity of a recession before it starts.

Ignore the Noise (w/ AK) | The One Thing This video shows why we should ignore the noise in the market and ask yourself, “what information is useful?” and “what information is just noise?” The purpose is not to read more or less, but to read differently and ask yourself, why this news now. What we…

Financial Advisor talks Recession, Alternative Investing and Retirement Peter Mallouk, president and founder of Creative Planning, discusses why he does not see an overvaluation of equities, why he is not fan of crypto, and why time is all-important when investing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0jEosfkkuI

What Will Cause The Next Recession – Jim O’Neill On The World Economy What will cause the next recession when “Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! and its mistakes were beauties.” — Paul Samuelson, 1966 When will the next recession happen? Jim O’Neill, former chief economist at Goldman Sachs, says…

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Before a coming recession, also watch the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index for forecasting the future. It uses 18 weekly data series to measure financial stress in the market: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress.…

US Stock Market since 1900 “For 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America” — Warren BuffettThis great chart of the US stock market since 1900, is a very good illustration of that fact. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Guide to the Markets” for Q2 2019

When Do Recessions Occur in the US? Since 1948, recessions occur in the US after the unemployment rate is lower than the natural rate of unemployment (long-term), with a very high degree of confidence.