U.S. Unemployment Rate Goldman Sachs forecasts a series of interest rate cuts through mid-2025 while maintaining a steady unemployment rate due to ongoing job growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rates vs. Oil U.S. breakeven inflation rates closely track oil prices, creating a complex challenge for the Federal Reserve as it navigates potential deflationary pressures in the coming months. Image: Real Investment…

S&P 500 Returns After Fed Cuts Within 2% of an All-Time High When the S&P 500 is within 2% of an all-time high and the Fed cuts rates, historical data shows that the index has…

U.S. Fed Funds Target Rate While “panic rate cuts” have historically been associated with negative market outcomes, the current context suggests that Wall Street may be embracing these cuts as necessary adjustments rather than signs…

Factor Performance Prior and After the First Fed Rate Cut Historically, the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve during easing cycles have tended to favor Growth over Value, Small over Large, and Bonds over…

Small-Cap Stocks Relative Performance vs. Large-Cap Stocks Around the First Fed Rate Cut Small-caps often outperform large-caps in the 6 months following the first Fed rate cut, driven by lower interest rates and a market…

NFIB Small Business Availability Loans vs. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims When interest rates are high, weak credit conditions can greatly affect the economy, potentially resulting in increased unemployment. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions When a recession is avoided, an un-inversion in the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve may suggest a favorable outlook for U.S. stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

What Do You Think Is Currently the Most Crowded Trade? For FMS investors, the “Long Magnificent Seven” trade continues to be the most crowded, largely attributed to the impressive performance and market leadership of these…

Median Index Returns Following First Fed Rate Cut Historically, midcaps have outperformed the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 in the three and twelve months following the initial Federal Reserve rate cut. Image: Goldman Sachs…

FMS Net % Expecting Stronger Economy vs. S&P 500 FMS investors remain pessimistic, anticipating a weak global economy over the next 12 months, resulting in a widening gap between their macroeconomic views and the performance…