10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Fair Value The fair value model for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, based on market variables, suggests a fair value close to 3.9%. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Performance After Green in Both May and June Since 1988, when the S&P 500 gains in both May and June—a rare bullish sign—the rest of the year rose 15 of 16 times, averaging…

Risk-Adjusted Returns Across U.S. Equity Indices The S&P 500’s performance so far this year has been marked by relatively low returns and high volatility, leading to weak risk-adjusted outcomes and signaling a challenging environment for…

Monthly Flow of G4 Central Bank Asset Purchases Global central banks are continuing to reduce their asset holdings at a robust pace, primarily through balance sheet runoff and measured non-reinvestment of maturing securities. Image: Deutsche…

CTAs Allocation in Oil Given the current market climate, Commodity Trading Advisors have notably raised their exposure to oil. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Brent Crude Oil vs. S&P 500 Index A short-term spike in oil prices may cause market jitters, but only a sustained, significant increase would meaningfully affect U.S. stocks and the broader economy; currently, economic and…

Concentration – Top 10, Top 3 and Top 1 as % of Total (In Terms of Total Equity Market Capitalization) China has one of the lowest market capitalization concentrations worldwide, with its top ten companies…

S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures % Open Interest Large speculators’ bearish positioning in the S&P 500 aligns with historical patterns seen near market lows, supporting the contrarian view that a rally is more likely if…

3-Month Rolling S&P 500 Retail Flows Retail traders have demonstrated robust buying activity in recent months, with Goldman Sachs estimating net purchases of approximately $20 billion in U.S. stocks over the past three months. Image:…

Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves…

Equities as a Share of Household Assets U.S. households now allocate about 49% of their assets to equities, a level that reflects strong market optimism and a significant appetite for risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…