Rates and Dollar Forecast BofA expects the Fed to cut rates in September, adjusting its previous expectations. While market expectations for rate cuts have risen, the Fed hasn’t given a clear signal and will rely…

U.S. Treasury Interest Payments The U.S. government’s growing interest payments, driven by rising debt and rates, pose significant risks to the economy and financial markets. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 vs. 37-Week Rate of Change Historically, a rise of over 30% in the 37-week rate of change of the S&P 500 Index has served as a warning signal for potential corrections. Image: Real…

U.S. Private Sector Financial Assets % of GDP The growing disconnect between U.S. financial asset values and GDP raises concerns about the widening wealth gap, potential systemic risks, economic instability, and policy challenges. Image: BofA…

U.S. CPI Inflation vs. U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield CPI dynamics in early 2024 show a clear pattern: Q1’s higher inflation prompted increased Fed scrutiny, while Q2’s declines suggest potential interest rate cuts, impacting market expectations…

Ownership of Developed Markets Government Debt Most U.S. government debt is owned domestically, while foreign investors hold a smaller but still significant portion. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 >4.5% in Four Days and Above 200-Day MA Since 1990, when the S&P 500 has risen more than 4.5% in four days, it has shown a strong tendency to be higher a year…

Volatility – VIX and U.S. Election The historical trend of the VIX spiking before U.S. elections and then rapidly declining afterward can be attributed to heightened uncertainty and investor fear in the lead-up to the…

Central Bank Policy Rate Changes Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast regarding interest rate policies, suggesting significant declines in policy rates across most economies over the next 12 months, driven by easing inflation and slowing…

What Is the Most Likely Outcome for the Global Economy in the Next 12 Months? FMS investors are anticipating a “soft landing” as the most likely outcome for the global economy, which implies a gradual…

Market – Gain Needed to Recover from Loss in an Investment The greater the potential loss, the more difficult it becomes to recover, potentially leading to significant long-term impacts on an investment portfolio. Image: Carson…