U.S. Unemployment Rate The U.S. “job plentiful” index has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level since 2017, which could signal broader economic challenges ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank

Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely…

S&P 500 Monthly New Highs per Month Since 1950, the S&P 500 has achieved 1,314 new all-time highs, highlighting its ability to rebound from market declines and continue its growth trajectory. Such growth periods often…

Number of Trading Days Since Last Fed Rate Cut The Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, in response to changing economic conditions, marks the second-longest wait for…

Inflation – U.S. Core PCE The GS Core Inflation Tracker currently remains below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, which is a crucial component of its monetary policy aimed at ensuring price stability and anchoring…

CTA Positioning in U.S. Rates While CTAs’ current long positions in U.S. rates reflect a bullish outlook, they also serve as a potential contrarian indicator for savvy investors looking to capitalize on market reversals. Image:…

S&P 500 vs. ISM Composite PMI The divergence between the U.S. ISM Composite PMI and the S&P 500 has become increasingly notable, reflecting contrasting signals about the health of the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley…

U.S. Real Prime Rate The 50bps rate cut helps small businesses by lowering borrowing costs. The Fed’s cut aims to stimulate economic activity and support the growth of these essential companies, which play a crucial…

Weekly U.S. Equity Fund Flows U.S. equity funds have seen substantial inflows amounting to $31.74 billion, reflecting a strong positive sentiment among investors, particularly following the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates last week. Image:…

Fed Rate Cuts Goldman Sachs forecasts a series of 25bp interest rate cuts through mid-2025, aimed at supporting economic growth amid fluctuating inflation rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 TTM YoY EPS vs. Fed Funds Target Traditionally, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, corporate profits tend to decelerate. However, this’s not the case today, highlighting the unique economic landscape we face.…