S&P 500 Forward 6-Month Performance vs. VIX Level Very high VIX readings may actually precede periods of strong market performance over the subsequent 6 months, as investor sentiment stabilizes and confidence returns. Image: Strategas Research…

Sentiment – Global Risk Demand Index The Morgan Stanley Global Risk Demand Index indicates that investors’ risk appetite is very low, which can often be seen as a contrarian indicator, where extreme pessimism might signal…

Fed Funds vs. VIX Taking into account the lag effect of Fed rate hikes on the U.S. economy, should investors expect the VIX to continue being elevated? Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions The U.S. manufacturing sector is currently experiencing its second longest downturn in modern history, attributed to various factors, including elevated interest rates that have suppressed demand. Image: BofA US…

Cumulative Flows to Crytocurrency Funds In 2024, unprecedented inflows into cryptocurrency funds signal a shift in sentiment, as both retail and institutional investors increasingly embrace digital assets. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Government Spending U.S. government spending fell by 6% year-over-year, marking a notable shift. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 – Indexed Performance Until the summer, the S&P 500 achieved one of its best starts in history, closely following the trajectory of 1995. During that year, the Fed cut interest rates, marking the…

Pullbacks on the S&P 500 While 5% pullbacks can be unsettling, they are a normal part of the market cycle and often present good entry points for traders and investors to add exposure during a…

S&P 500 and Pullbacks While pullbacks can be challenging, historical data indicates that the S&P 500 tends to recover and move higher in the months following a 5% pullback. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consensus Earnings Expectations According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is expected to report earnings growth of 11.5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024, which would be the highest such growth rate in almost three…

S&P 500 Earnings vs. CPI and PPI While inflation can influence S&P 500 earnings, it is commonly seen as a lagging indicator rather than a leading one. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy