S&P 500 and 3-Month VIX Relative to VIX (VIX3M/VIX) The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX closing at an oversold level below 1 is a potentially significant indicator of market sentiment. This can be interpreted…
Seasonality of Market Performance – MSCI USA August and September have historically been less favorable months for U.S. equities, with lower average performance compared to other months. Image: BofA Global Quantitative Strategy
Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928 The historical pattern of the VIX rising before U.S. elections and then rapidly plunging afterward is attributed to increased uncertainty and investor fear leading up to…
ISM Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Recessions A drop in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI below 45 signals significantly heightened recession risks, indicating a severe contraction in the manufacturing sector. Image: BofA Global Research
VIX Average Trend in U.S. Election Years Historical patterns suggest that the VIX tends to bottom out in mid to late August, followed by a trend of increasing volatility as the U.S. Election Day approaches,…
U.S. Household Liquid Assets The amount of cash held by households in the United States has surged to an unprecedented level of $18 trillion, representing a significant increase from previous years. Image: BofA Research Investment…
Flows into Global Equity Funds Flows into global equity funds have accelerated in recent weeks, reflecting a growing appetite for riskier investments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
How U.S. Stocks Historically Do When the Incumbent President Doesn’t Run for Re-Election The tendency for U.S. stocks to perform well in years when the incumbent president chooses not to run for re-election can be…
Seasonality – Average Annualized S&P 500 Price Return by Month BofA’s strategists are cautioning investors about the potential for significant market corrections in the near term, driven by weak seasonal patterns and the uncertainties surrounding…
Gold vs. Japanese Yen Over the past two weeks, gold prices have declined by approximately 8% relative to the Japanese Yen. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Firms Responses to Whether They Use AI to Produce Goods and Services Currently, only 5% of U.S. firms use AI to produce goods and services, but this figure is expected to grow as more…