U.S. Stocks Returns during Year One of a President’s Second Term The performance of U.S. stocks during the first year of a second presidential term has shown mixed results historically, but recent trends suggest a…
S&P 500 Fwd. Earnings Growth and Russell 2000 Fwd. Earnings Growth The recovery in EPS growth has been driven by a small number of large-cap companies, which may indicate a late-cycle extension in the economic…
Market-Implied Probability of U.S. CPI Inflation Over the Next 5 Years Market pricing indicates a substantial likelihood that future U.S. headline CPI inflation rates will exceed 3%, with a 33% probability over the next five…
Return – Dow Jones U.S. Thematic Market Neutral Momentum Index With a remarkable 31% return in 2024, momentum investing has emerged as a standout equity strategy, poised for its best year since 2002. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns After a 1% or Greater Return on the First Day of the Santa Claus Rally Bulls are excited! Since 1969, each time the S&P 500 has gained 1% or more on the…
Contribution to Annual S&P 500 Return The ten largest stocks in the S&P 500 have significantly influenced its performance in recent years, driving returns while raising important questions about the risks associated with market concentration.…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Even holiday cheer can’t mask the disappointment of unwanted Christmas gifts! Just as bears prefer gold over stocks for its safety and inflation hedge, we all secretly wish for gifts…
Magnificent Seven Contribution to S&P 500 Returns The Magnificent Seven stocks have played a crucial role in driving the S&P 500’s performance in 2024, continuing the momentum from their remarkable gains in 2023. Image: Alpine…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The bulls are celebrating like kids with their favorite new gadget, thrilled by the S&P 500’s 1.10% jump to kick off the Santa Claus Rally! Have a Great Day, Everyone!…
Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Despite rising 10-year real U.S. Treasury yields indicating tighter financial conditions, the stock market remains unaffected due to favorable economic indicators, strong corporate earnings forecasts, and anticipated supportive monetary policy.…
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to hit 4.35% by the end of 2025, diverging from current futures market expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research