Consecutive Presidential Elections Where the Incumbent Party in the White House Is Defeated For the first time since the late 1800s, the incumbent party has lost three consecutive presidential elections. Politicians are unable to deliver…
Federal Funds Target Rate While the Fed has begun easing monetary policy, the current federal funds rate remains notably above their estimated neutral rate, with plans for further gradual reductions to bring it closer to…
U.S. Dollar – Overall Weighted Valuations Ranked The U.S. dollar is considered the second most overvalued liquid currency globally, based on three valuation metrics: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER), and Fundamental…
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Around Presidential Election Dates Historically, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have tended to rise after Republican victories and fall after Democratic victories, reflecting market perceptions of each party’s economic policies. Image: Deutsche…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day – U.S. Presidential Election 2024 – Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 Returns When Up >17.5% After the First 10 Months of Year Historically, when the S&P 500 has been up more than 17.5% year-to-date going into November, the final two months of the year…
Gold and U.S. 10-Year Real Rates Gold prices typically exhibit an inverse relationship with U.S. real interest rates, as investors often shift their holdings between gold and interest-bearing assets based on the opportunity cost of…
S&P 500 Returns After the Election The U.S. stock market has shown a notable tendency to perform well following presidential elections. In fact, after the last ten elections, stocks have increased in value nine times,…
S&P 500 Around U.S. Election Date Following the 2020 presidential election, the U.S. stock market exhibited robust growth. Can investors expect a similar trend after the 2024 election? Image: Deutsche Bank
Difference Between Realized and Consensus Estimate of S&P 500 EPS While S&P 500 companies continue to beat EPS estimates, indicating underlying strength, recent data suggests this trend is moderating compared to previous quarters Image: Goldman…
MSCI Cyclicals/Defensives Return During anticipated economic expansions, investors lean towards cyclical stocks for their growth potential, while defensive stocks serve as a buffer during economic downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research