What Is the Most Likely Outcome for the Global Economy in the Next 12 Months? FMS investors are anticipating a “soft landing” as the most likely outcome for the global economy, which implies a gradual…
Market – Gain Needed to Recover from Loss in an Investment The greater the potential loss, the more difficult it becomes to recover, potentially leading to significant long-term impacts on an investment portfolio. Image: Carson…
Percentage of Countries with Manufacturing PMI Above 50 While the global manufacturing sector faced headwinds in mid-2023, the latest data suggest a gradual recovery is underway, with the percentage of countries in expansion nearly doubling…
S&P 500 and VIX Above 50 When the VIX exceeded 50, the S&P 500 was higher a year later in 91 out of 92 instances since 1990, with an average gain of 33%. Image: Carson…
S&P 500 Going into a Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Trigger Event The recent triggering of the Sahm Rule indicator has diverged from the typical behavior of U.S. equities seen in the lead-up to a recession.…
Europe’s GRANOLAS Stocks and Market Capitalization While Europe may not have the Magnificent Seven, it does have the GRANOLAS, which represents Glaxosmithkline, Roche, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L’Oreal, LVMH, Astrazeneca, SAP, and Sanofi. Image:…
Stocks – Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals and defensives are useful indicators of investor sentiment. As investors expect economic contractions, they often shift towards defensives, resulting in their outperformance compared to cyclicals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Stocks – Average Stock Correlation in the S&P 500 The current trend in the S&P 500 indicates a significant rise in stock correlation, suggesting a more homogenous market behavior that could pose risks for…
G10 FX Carry Trade Index The Bank of Japan’s recent actions caused market turmoil termed an “ugly deleveraging event,” reflecting ongoing economic challenges in Japan. Navigating a post-deflationary landscape adds complexity to the situation. Image:…
The Federal Reserve and Financial Crisis While the current rate hiking cycle hasn’t caused widespread financial crises yet, it’s premature to say it’s entirely different. The Fed must carefully balance controlling inflation, achieving maximum employment,…
High Yield Bond Flows Persistence outflows from high yield bonds could signal a lack of confidence in the underlying companies and their capacity to fulfill debt obligations, making it a crucial indicator to monitor closely.…