U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equity valuations are still lofty, with major gauges more than two standard deviations above century-long norms. Cheap is not the word that comes to mind. Image: The…
Foreign Investors Equity Allocation Percentile vs. History In 2025, foreign investors substantially increased their holdings of U.S. equities, reaching record levels despite stretched valuations, a weakening dollar and better returns abroad. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums low in the U.S. and Japan, investors are hardly paid for taking on stock risk instead of safer bonds, making equity investing a tougher call.…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.80%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
FINRA Debit Balance in Securities Margin Accounts Leverage in margin accounts has surged since April 2025, reflecting strong market optimism. The catch is that higher leverage can turn painful fast when volatility spikes, triggering forced…
Share of Global Market Capitalization The U.S., with barely 4% of the world’s people, dominates 62% of global equity value. Its innovation engines continue to magnetize foreign money. A reminder that global markets still move…
S&P 500 Earnings & Estimates and Earnings Growth Trend Line S&P 500 earnings have significantly outpaced historical growth trends. If profits start to slip in the coming quarters, richly valued stocks could face a sharp…
S&P 500 Performance and Risk Appetite Indicator Good news for the bulls: Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator broke above 1.0 last week, a bullish signal that has historically lined up with roughly 15% median gains…
Commodities vs. 50/50 S&P 500 and U.S. Treasuries Commodities remain undervalued relative to U.S. stocks and bonds, offering room for strategic allocations that enhance portfolio balance. Image: Bloomberg
Gold Prices in Real Terms Gold’s real price is sky-high right now. It’s a very different story from the dot-com boom, when investors piled into tech and gold fell out of favor almost overnight. Image:…
Cumulative Gold Demand – Gold ETF vs. Central Banks Amid macro conditions, currency moves, and rising geopolitical tension, gold’s rally gathered pace in 2025 as central banks began competing with private investors for scarce bullion.…