Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator has slipped to -0.9. After similar readings, the S&P 500 has historically averaged a 0.5% gain over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 27% year on year in 3Q 2026, powered largely by strong tech profits. Once again, tech is carrying…
Net Speculative Position in EUR/USD With speculators already net short, the euro could face renewed selling if bearish bets increase or economic data deteriorate. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. Subsequent 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is trading at a Shiller CAPE level seen only during the market’s most expensive episodes. History points to real annualized returns…
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Bulls are still smiling. Historically, the S&P 500 has found its sweet spot from the fourth quarter of a president’s second year through the second…
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 takes a hit of about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they have been rewarded over time: the index finished…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums Stocks in the U.S. and Japan offer investors little compensation for the extra risk they carry relative to bonds. That makes equities a tougher sell and leaves them vulnerable…
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are expected to deliver 57% earnings growth this year, more than double the 23% expected for the rest of the S&P 500.…
S&P 500 Monthly Performance in Midterm Election Years Since 1950, October has been the best month for midterm years, averaging a 3% gain and finishing higher 74% of the time. Is it time to be…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 413K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…
Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE Bond traders are more defensive on U.S. rates, while equity investors remain confident that stocks will stay relatively calm. That growing disconnect is not necessarily a bearish signal, but…