Valuation – S&P 500 Index Long-Term P/E Ratio The S&P 500’s long-term P/E ratio has surged to record highs, leaving investors with little buffer against bad news and making the market more vulnerable to economic…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 17.1%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth Momentum looks set to build for the U.S. economy in 2026, driven by fading tariffs, fresh tax cuts, and easier financial conditions. Still, inflation remains the wildcard that…
U.S. Household Wealth Stock market gains over the past six years have boosted U.S. household wealth and powered consumer spending, while also heightening vulnerability if markets fall. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Returns During The Santa Claus Rally The Santa Claus Rally is the market’s year-end sweet spot, with U.S. stocks historically rising over the last five trading days of December and the first two…
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are sitting at the 78th percentile, but discretionary investors remain stuck at the 49th percentile, leaving plenty of dry powder for another leg higher. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
2026 Equity Forecasts Goldman Sachs anticipates upside potential for global equities in 2026 amid a multipolar economic environment, while projecting modest underperformance for U.S. markets relative to international peers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates Goldman Sachs sees S&P 500 EPS rising 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027, driven by a resilient U.S. economy, a weaker dollar, strong mega-cap tech earnings,…
Survey – Biggest Risks to Market Stability in 2026 A rare consensus is emerging among investors on what could shake markets in 2026. Deutsche Bank’s latest survey finds AI and tech bubble jitters leading the…
Margin Debt as Percentage of Real Disposal Personal Income Margin debt has climbed to a record share of real disposable income. With incomes barely growing and borrowing piling up, investors look increasingly exposed. Markets may…
U.S. Tech and S&P 500 – 1-Year Total Return Performance to Peak Past market bubbles often ended with explosive last-year rallies, far outpacing normal bull market returns. That kind of blow-off surge just isn’t happening…