Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally is still being driven by infrastructure winners, with chip giants, data center builders and cloud platforms cashing in while software and productivity names…
S&P 500 Performance Since Start of the Year AI is no longer just a buzzword lifting mega-cap names, it is actively driving earnings growth and boosting productivity across corporate America. Since the start of the…
U.S. Tech Sector Share Buyback Announcements There’s no sign of a pause in U.S. tech buybacks, as strong earnings keep the pipeline active. That’s a tailwind for shareholders, and as long as profits hold up,…
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The rally has made U.S. equities a tougher trade. Upside now looks constrained, while the risk of a pullback is growing amid stretched valuations and a weakening macro…
S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains Following a powerful two-year run, the S&P 500 could bottom in the fall as markets test the new Fed chair, before pushing toward…
S&P 500 Returns Following Major Geopolitical Events History shows the same script in over 20 major events since WWII: markets snap back quicker than feared, and those who hold their nerve often win. Panic usually…
Distribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns Since 1928, double-digit annual losses in the S&P 500 have been the exception, not the rule, occurring only 12 times. Today, with record earnings, elevated margins, and sustained AI…
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Multiple – MSCI Regions, STOXX 600 and S&P 500 Markets may have pulled back, but valuations are still elevated worldwide. Strong earnings are doing the work, and as long as…
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Robust tech investment, steady policy support, and a surprisingly flexible private sector are keeping momentum alive…
GS Financial Conditions Index With rates lower and equities climbing, looser US financial conditions are giving both consumer spending and business investment a stronger tailwind. Confidence often strengthens in step. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
S&P 500 Drawdowns from 52-Week High and the First Two Years of a New Fed Chair’s Term Fed leadership changes don’t usually shake markets on their own. It’s the macro picture and prior positioning that…