The Performance of the S&P 500 Before and After Midterm Elections History has been kind to investors after midterms. In all 20 midterm elections since World War II, the S&P 500 has been higher nine…
S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years often bring a bump in S&P 500 volatility, as investors wait to see who controls Congress and what that means…
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio On the Shiller CAPE, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere, the kind that thrills investors on the way up and has a habit of burning them…
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM August rivals May as the worst month for equity outflows from mutual funds and ETFs. As geopolitical risk builds, should…
U.S. Tech Sector Flows Despite the pullback in tech names, the money isn’t leaving: Tech inflows persist and semi ETFs are still seeing heavy volume. This looks like a consolidation, not the end of the…
10-Year Rolling Annualized Equity vs. Bond Performance (Ex Post Equity Risk Premia) On a 10-year rolling annualized basis, U.S. equities have outperformed bonds by one of the widest margins since the 1920s and 1950s. Image:…
Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities U.S. Treasuries continue to draw strong foreign demand. Holdings rose to a record $9.37 trillion in May, but the buying power has passed from foreign central banks to private…
Equity Positioning At the 36th percentile, overall equity positioning sits just below neutral and well short of crowded, while large-cap tech at the 56th percentile is near neutral after easing from more elevated levels. Image:…
Sector Fund Flows Tech funds enjoyed strong inflows over the past year, driven by AI hype, but those flows are reversing as investors reassess valuations, rates and market risk. The tech story isn’t over; it’s…
Change in S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Consensus Unlike the usual pattern of downward revisions during the season, S&P 500 earnings estimates turned out to be too conservative. Third-quarter numbers are now moving higher, a positive…
Equities Allocation by G10 and U.S. Investors Across the G10, equity exposure in household, pension, and insurance portfolios has moved up significantly, nearing record highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research