Valuation – The Buffett Indicator The Buffett Indicator, which compares U.S. market capitalization to GDP, hit a fresh high. It’s not a crash signal, but it raises a flag. At these levels, history suggests weaker…

Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The rally has made U.S. equities harder to chase. Upside looks limited, while the risk of a pullback is building as valuations stretch. The risk-reward now looks less compelling.…

Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no fixed relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation changes over time, driven by inflation dynamics, rate expectations,…

CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs’ overall allocation to bonds sits in the 8th percentile, indicating little appetite for rates risk. Fixed income is simply not where they want exposure right now. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

U.S. Net Margin Debt U.S. margin debt is hovering near record highs. That level of borrowing reflects strong risk appetite, but it also leaves the market more exposed to sharp pullbacks if stocks slide and…

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.05% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Cyclical Minus Defensive Sectors Positioning At the 52nd percentile, sector positioning shows a market in balance, with no meaningful shift toward either cyclicals or defensives, pointing to a lack of strong conviction. Image: Deutsche Bank…

S&P 500 Performance After Seven Week Wins Streaks Up >10% A seven-week winning streak and a double-digit gain tend to set the tone. Since 1950, US stocks have delivered an average 12-month return of 15.7%…

CTAs Exposure to Equities Since the start of the year, CTAs have cut equity exposure to the 49th percentile, but their positioning remains solidly long, pointing to a cautious but constructive stance. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ Goldman’s Momentum Factor has jumped over 25% in the past three months. Moves like this are rare, only 11 since 1980. The historical playbook points to…

Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P…