S&P 500 Performance vs. EM and DM Ex-U.S. Equities Since the Middle East conflict began, the S&P 500 has left global peers behind, outperforming both emerging and developed ex‑U.S. markets. Investors still see the U.S.…
U.S. Equities and Wars Some major geopolitical events have knocked U.S. stocks down 15% or more before. Is this time different? For now, markets look like they’re pricing in hope, not fear. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Futures vs. Brent Crude Oil S&P 500 futures and Brent crude oil have moved in tandem lately, but the correlation has softened this week. Are markets breaking away from oil prices? Maybe investors…
VIX vs. S&P 500 Compared with past oil shocks, the S&P 500’s drop looks measured. Investors seem braced for short-term turbulence rather than a structural shift in sentiment. The pullback feels more like caution than…
Fed Funds Rate vs. Gasoline Price / Core CPI When gasoline prices rise faster than inflation and move in step with growth, the Fed tends to lift rates. But what is the determining factor this…
Bloomberg Dollar Index One-Month Risk Reversals Currency markets are turning defensive, as demand for dollar upside and protection against violent swings gains pace amid Middle East tensions. Few things spook investors like uncertainty, and the…
Quarterly Annualized Real U.S. GDP Growth Under the baseline, oil prices hit $110 in March and ease to $71 by 2026 Q4, pulling the projected 2026 Q4/Q4 US GDP growth down 0.3 percentage points to…
U.S. Dollar History vs. Neutral Value Currency markets move more on expectations around interest rates, economic data, and geopolitics than on fundamentals. The U.S. dollar’s stabilization at neutral levels reflects Fed policy uncertainty and ongoing…
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Strong profits haven’t lifted valuations: the S&P 500’s P/E has narrowed as investors weigh geopolitical uncertainty and renewed oil price volatility. Sometimes solid results aren’t enough when risk…
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability Markets now price in just a 14% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, keeping recession fears modest and consistent with a moderate-risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
S&P 500 and Cross-Asset Volatility Stress Rising cross-asset volatility often signals growing fragility in U.S. equities. It is a cautionary signal, not a call on an imminent crash. It’s more of a yellow flag than…