Central Bank Gold Purchases Central bank gold buying eased to 863 tonnes in 2025 from 1,092 tonnes in 2024. Buying has cooled, but official-sector demand remains well above historical standards and continues to play a…

Various S&P 500 Index 6-Month Returns May-October is often seen as the weaker stretch for U.S. stocks, averaging just 2.1%. But when April rallies more than 5%, history flips the script: since 1950, the S&P…

Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows Over the past four weeks, inflows into risk assets have outpaced those into safer funds, pointing to a shift in investor appetite toward higher-return bets. With confidence rebuilding, markets…

Hyperscaler Quarterly Capex Growth Over the next few quarters, hyperscalers are set to slow capex growth, which could drag on valuations while leaving them more vulnerable in the supply-strained battle for AI leadership. Image: Goldman…

U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In March, U.S. building permits declined to 1.372 million, below expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions.…

S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 Since 1950, May has been a dead spot for U.S. stocks. The market typically finds its footing in June and July, only to see momentum fade as August…

Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate The S&P 500 sits squarely in the middle of its post-GFC trend channel, hardly stretched, but far from a bargain. Image: Deutsche Bank

Valuations and Dow Jones U.S. stocks are trading as if nothing can go wrong, with valuations in territory that has a habit of ending poorly. Timing the turn is always tricky, but when markets run…

Discretionary Positioning and Ex-MCG & Tech Earnings Growth Discretionary positioning continues to lag earnings growth beyond MCG and Tech, leaving upside on the table if revisions hold and macro risks stay in check. Image: Deutsche…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market is pricing a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, just below…

Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate Analysts usually trim EPS estimates in the first four months of the year. Not this time. In 2026, revisions are heading higher, fueled by AI optimism…