S&P 500 Performance Under New Fed Leadership Since 1930 New Fed leadership rarely drives the market narrative. It tends to follow the momentum already in place across the economy. Transitions, however, can change the intensity…
Median Stock Return on Equity vs. P/E Valuation Profitability gaps go a long way in explaining why equity indices trade at different valuations. Companies that generate higher returns on equity typically earn richer multiples. Image:…
Cumulative Equity Flows U.S. and international equity inflows have remained robust over the past year and have accelerated in recent months, pointing to a supportive environment for further market upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation When oil rises, inflation tends to follow, pushing up energy and transport costs that ripple across the economy. That dynamic often pressures equities, as margins tighten and consumers pull back.…
S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rarely delivered average annual returns. Will 2026 extend the winning streak with another round of outsized gains well above 10%? For…
Valuations and Dow Jones U.S. stocks are priced for perfection, with valuations back in territory that has a habit of ending badly. Calling the turn is never easy, but when markets run this hot, even…
Real Estate Positioning At the 89th percentile, real estate positioning is firmly overweight, leaving the trade at risk if yields climb or rate-hike expectations pick up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The S&P 500 52-week market breadth improved meaningfully last week, a development bulls tend to welcome since durable rallies usually require participation…
AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 trades near record highs, up more than 10% year to date, but US retail sentiment refuses to follow. The AAII bull-bear spread remains stuck…
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October 2025, the S&P 500’s forward P/E has eased from 23 to 21, largely on the back of stronger forward earnings estimates. Valuations look less stretched than…
S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE) Record profitability is helping justify elevated S&P 500 valuations, with trailing four-quarter ROE at 22%, a historic high. But if margins come…