Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The rebound in global growth has been the central macro story of 2026. But the tone is shifting, as firmer inflation brings rate hikes back into the…
Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 EPS Positive earnings revisions have driven the S&P 500 higher this year, with gains coming without any lift in the forward P/E, reinforcing confidence. Earnings continue to do the heavy…
Semiconductors as a Share of the S&P 500 The market’s weak spot is concentration. Semiconductors have climbed to 18.8% of the S&P 500, a record and more than twice their dot-com era peak. One miss…
S&P 500 Performance Up YTD Between 5-10% at the Midpoint of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has been up 5% to 10% by midyear, it has finished the year higher 93.8% of…
Gold Drawdown from Its Trailing Previous Peak Gold has just suffered one of its steepest pullbacks in more than a decade. The drop looks less like the start of a lasting reversal and more like…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.54%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities U.S. equity inflows have been running hot this year, with leveraged bets on U.S. exceptionalism still firmly in place. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 The Mag-7 has weighed on U.S. indices since October 2025, with selling pressure accelerating in June as investors began to question returns…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 S&P 500 seasonality shows August is rarely a sweet spot for stocks, as volatility tends to pick up and returns often lag. Image: Topdown Charts
Gold Model Using a model that incorporates real yields, the dollar, the S&P 500, and copper, gold now appears to be trading near fair value again. That leaves investors with a neutral signal. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Margin Debt Margin debt is rising fast. Leverage can turbocharge gains in a rally, but it cuts just as hard when sentiment shifts. Investors would be wise to pay attention. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…