S&P 500 ex. Energy Year/Year EPS Growth Q2 earnings were remarkably strong, with AI infrastructure stocks once again driving gains across the S&P 500. But beneath the headline strength, the earnings picture remains highly concentrated.…
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits rose to 1.443 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions.…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has pushed back into stretched territory as investors pile into higher-risk bets. Upside still exists, but crowded positioning raises the odds of a…
Returns – Magnificent Seven vs. European Banks Since the start of 2022, European banks have outpaced U.S. mega-cap tech stocks. In a market obsessed with AI and the Magnificent Seven, it’s a rare twist. Image:…
GS Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions excluding equities have tightened slightly, but the overall stance remains easy and supportive of growth rather than restrictive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums In the U.S. and Japan, the equity risk premium has shrunk so much that stocks barely pay investors for taking extra risk over bonds. That makes the case for…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.65% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally has largely been an infrastructure trade, rewarding chipmakers, data-center builders and cloud platforms, while leaving software and productivity stocks behind. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Flows into Gold Funds Demand for gold funds is picking up again as retail investors return to ETFs, central banks keep adding to their reserves and the macro backdrop continues to favor gold. Image: Goldman…
Global Cross Asset Risk Sentiment Global investors are firmly risk-on, but sentiment is constructive rather than euphoric, keeping the door open to further gains. Image: TS Lombard
Top 7 Hyperscaler Capex Forecast This year, the top seven U.S. hyperscalers are on track to pour almost $900 billion into capex, with 2027 set to drive the total toward $1.5 trillion. What began as…