S&P 500 Index and Barclays Equity Timing Indicator Barclays’ Equity Timing Indicator—a gauge of 19 market and economic signals—is tilting bullish, implying an 82% chance the S&P 500 rises over the next two months, with…
Small Cap Equity Positioning Investors have been piling into small-cap stocks in recent weeks, with positioning jumping to a neutral 48th percentile—still leaving plenty of room for further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns when New Highs Are Made in August, September, and October History is on the bulls’ side: whenever the S&P 500 has hit new highs in August, September, and October, the fourth quarter…
Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in…
Consensus Capex Growth Estimates As we move into 2026, hyperscale AI players are bracing for a sharp slowdown in capital spending—a shift that could weigh on their valuation multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech hovers in that sweet spot: 66th percentile, clearly leaning bullish but without the excess—setting the stage for another leg higher should sentiment firm. Image:…
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings growth to cool to 6% in 3Q 2025 from 11% in 2Q, but Goldman Sachs thinks the bar may be…
Valuation – Real S&P 500 Index with Recessions and S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio With the Shiller CAPE ratio hovering near 40 times earnings, the U.S. stock market looks expensive and long-term real returns are…
S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October Bulls welcome October’s new highs, knowing the fourth quarter has been kind: markets have risen more than 90% of the time, with average gains of…
Gold ETF Holdings The surge in Western gold ETF holdings tells a story of fragile nerves and strong convictions—uncertain macro signals, anticipated rate cuts, and a search for safety pushing both private investors and central…
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio For a while, valuations look irrelevant—until they dictate everything. Over the past 150 years, stretched multiples have reliably led to leaner returns, with the last three peaks leaving investors…