Total Return Performance (USD Terms) of Selected Assets in August Precious metals stole the show in August, with silver and gold each climbing double digits as money rotated into havens amid U.0.S debt worries, dollar…
10-Year Government Bond Yield Sovereign bonds are selling off worldwide, not just in one market, as investors are concerned about higher energy prices, stickier inflation, tighter policy and a wave of government borrowing. Image: Alpine…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Performance Under President Trump September seasonality is flashing green. Under President Trump, U.S. stocks have closed higher in September in four out of five years, giving bulls reason to smile. Image:…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Call it the September drag. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has lost an average 0.6% in the month and finished higher in just 47% of Septembers.…
Crypto Fund Flows Last week, cryptocurrency funds saw their biggest weekly inflows since May, driven largely by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutional money is back, and so is the risk appetite. Image: Deutsche…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, remains deep in euphoria territory. When the crowd is this bullish, the risk…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.60%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is…
VIX Seasonality Summer calm rarely lasts. U.S. stock volatility usually kicks in about now. Does this time break the pattern? Image: Topdown Charts
Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has run well ahead of its long‑term median over the past years, but that kind of strength will be tough to repeat from today’s…
Sector Fund Flows Over the past 12 months, investors have piled into tech funds on the back of AI fever, chip strength and improving earnings outlooks. Can the momentum hold? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation