Equity Risk Premium In the U.S., the equity risk premium has shrunk to the point where stocks barely compensate investors for taking risk over bonds. That weakens the bull case for equities and sets the…

Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility Systematic strategies remain heavily overweight, with positioning in the 88th percentile. That alone is no immediate sell signal. Positioning can stay stretched as long as the…

Change in Consensus 2026 S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 EPS forecasts for 2026 surged, with upward revisions accelerating after the U.S.–Iran conflict erupted, even as geopolitical and macro risks climbed. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC &…

$100,000 over 30 Years: The Fund vs. The Average Investor U.S. funds returned an annualized 8.2%, but the average investor earned only about 7.0%. Much of the gap came from poor timing: buying after prices…

S&P 500 Sectors Announced Buybacks (Last 3 Months) Over the past three months, buyback announcements have been led by Financials, Tech and Industrials, which together make up most of the repurchase activity in U.S. equities.…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 12.3%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the…

S&P 500 Implied Correlation The S&P 500 may be rising as a whole, but individual stocks are telling very different stories. As correlations fade, fundamentals are starting to matter again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Commodities (Oil, Gold, Copper) – Commodity Net Long Positioning Momentum in gold and copper is firmly with the bulls as net-long positions build. The trend still has legs, but this isn’t an early-cycle trade anymore.…

S&P 500 3-Month Option-Implied Volatility Single-stock volatility in the S&P 500 has eased from July’s extremes but remains above its long-term average, while index volatility is still relatively calm. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E The S&P 500 equal-weight index trades at 16 times forward earnings, versus 20 times for the benchmark. It is hardly cheap, but the discount makes it look more attractive.…

S&P 500 Weekly Announced Buybacks While the pace of new S&P 500 buyback announcements has cooled in the past few weeks, overall buyback activity in corporate America remains firm, providing steady support for stocks. Image:…