Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits near neutral, while cyclicals remain deeply underweight at the 8th percentile. It would not take much positive news to trigger a sharp reversal. Image:…
S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish on U.S. equities. When net short positioning reaches these kinds of extremes, it has often set the stage for sharp short squeezes, a classic…
S&P 500 vs. U.S. 10-Year Bond Correlation Since the COVID-19 pandemic, equities and bonds have increasingly moved in tandem, especially during inflation spikes and rate hikes, weakening bonds’ traditional role as a diversifier. Image: Goldman…
U.S. Quality vs. Momentum Equities Since the March lows, momentum has taken the lead over quality, backed by strong earnings prints and positive price action. For now, investors are sticking with companies that deliver on…
Forecast of Gold Prices Goldman Sachs slashed its year-end gold forecast by $500 an ounce as expectations for Fed easing in 2026 faded. The new $4,900 December target still leaves room for second-half gains. Image:…
Price Return in 2026 The median stock in each region is lagging this year, with gains concentrated in a narrow group of heavyweight tech names. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ROE for Mega-Cap Tech and the Rest of the S&P 500 Mega-cap tech’s return on equity is expected to face headwinds and decline through 2028, while the rest of the S&P 500 sees ROE trending…
Margin Debt as Percentage of M2 (Measure of Leverage) Leverage amplifies gains in rising markets but reveals fragility when sentiment turns. Margin debt relative to the money supply is running hot, echoing levels last seen…
S&P 500 Performance Under New Fed Leadership Since 1930 New Fed leadership rarely drives the market narrative. It tends to follow the momentum already in place across the economy. Transitions, however, can change the intensity…
Median Stock Return on Equity vs. P/E Valuation Profitability gaps go a long way in explaining why equity indices trade at different valuations. Companies that generate higher returns on equity typically earn richer multiples. Image:…
Cumulative Equity Flows U.S. and international equity inflows have remained robust over the past year and have accelerated in recent months, pointing to a supportive environment for further market upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation