S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 – First Half of July Seasonality favors the bulls. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has advanced 69% of the time in the first half of July, with the Nasdaq 100…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June The second half of June has a track record of frustrating equity bulls, with U.S. stocks often drifting lower. The bright spot is that we are now…

Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is set to reach $764 billion this year, rising to $1.018 trillion by 2027. At that scale, it feels less like a cycle and more like a structural reset. Image:…

S&P 500 During The Dotcom Bubble Back at the start of the dotcom bust, U.S. tech stocks sold off while the rest of the market rose. If that pattern holds, the safest place to hide…

S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator As G10 excess liquidity remains in negative territory, the outlook for U.S. equities over the next six months darkens. When liquidity drains, stocks tend to feel it.…

Gold vs. Oil vs. Fed Pricing After moving opposite to oil in March and April, gold diverged in May and is now trading more in line with Fed rate expectations. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability The U.S.-Iran agreement has taken some tail risk off the table, with Goldman Sachs trimming its 12-month U.S. recession call to 15% from 25%, back at its long-term average. Image: Goldman…

U.S. Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions have eased since March, pointing to a more growth‑friendly backdrop. Looser conditions typically give near‑term GDP a lift. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits near neutral, while cyclicals remain deeply underweight at the 8th percentile. It would not take much positive news to trigger a sharp reversal. Image:…

S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish on U.S. equities. When net short positioning reaches these kinds of extremes, it has often set the stage for sharp short squeezes, a classic…

S&P 500 vs. U.S. 10-Year Bond Correlation Since the COVID-19 pandemic, equities and bonds have increasingly moved in tandem, especially during inflation spikes and rate hikes, weakening bonds’ traditional role as a diversifier. Image: Goldman…