U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.58% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Dividends as % of Capital Expenditures The AI and infrastructure boom has pushed capex higher, but dividends have grown faster. The dividends-to-capex ratio has risen from 20% in the late 1990s to 50% today. U.S.…

S&P 500 Reported Earnings, Inflation-Adjusted to 2026 Dollars S&P 500 earnings just broke a 90‑year trend channel. Can profits stay this hot? The risk is a mean reversion that leaves current multiples looking far too…

S&P 500 Performance on Day of First Hike The last four first-hike days have been positive, with several big single-day gains, as the widely anticipated move clears the Fed doubts on timing. So, is this…

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders are betting on a Fed rate hike today, with markets pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps move. But when oil…

S&P 500 Performance on the Day of the FOMC Meeting U.S. stocks have struggled on FOMC days this year. Can this week break the pattern? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Bond Positioning Bond positioning has sunk to the 5th percentile. If history rhymes, yields are near a short-term peak. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Valuation – S&P 500 Fwd 12-Month P/E Multiple vs. EPS Yield Gap vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury So far in 2026, U.S. equities have digested higher rates mostly through multiple compression, leaving the valuation gap…

Foreign Holding of U.S. Financial Assets: Allocation to Equities Foreign investors are unusually crowded into U.S. stocks. What would happen if they all rushed for the exits? Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 Performance on the Week of FOMC Meetings U.S. stocks have whipsawed through recent FOMC meetings, but the average week still closes in the green. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles History says the S&P 500 tends to stumble in the weeks after the Fed starts hiking, before recovering as the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs…