S&P 500 vs. Its Seasonal Pattern The equal-weighted S&P 500 has followed the seasonal script closely, rebounding from its lows almost in step with the S&P 500’s typical pattern. Seasonality is now a tailwind for…

MCG & Tech vs. The Rest Earnings Growth Tech earnings are expected to surge in the third quarter, but even that may not be enough to lift the sector in the near term. Earnings expectations…

Investor Psychology Cycle Panic can push markets too far, too fast, creating opportunities for contrarians willing to buy when fear peaks. Euphoria is the other side of the trade, and often signals that it’s time…

S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets Age alone is no reason to call time on a bull market. Bull markets that reach year four have more often than not delivered another strong year, averaging…

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 3.03% YoY in October. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…

Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Analysts have raised their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, with resilient profits lifting market sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Semiconductors: Earnings Growth vs. Prices AI demand remained robust in Q3, with several indicators pointing to more upside. Deutsche Bank expects the tailwind to boost earnings across mega-cap growth and technology stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank…

S&P 500 Up 10% to 20% YTD at the End of September History is giving the bulls a reason to stay optimistic. When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% by late September, it…

Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Annual Return Since 1951, U.S. stocks have averaged annual gains of 13.7% under a Republican president and 17% under a Democratic president when Congress was divided.…

Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Bad moods can be good news for stocks. When consumer confidence sinks, as it is today, pessimism may already be priced in, leaving markets room to…

Hyperscaler Cloud Revenue Backlogs Hyperscalers’ backlogs keep growing as cloud and AI demand accelerates. For now, the orders are there, but that’s not proof the spending will pay off. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research