Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns History shows that when consumer confidence sinks, stocks often rebound, turning gloom into a launchpad for gains. It’s the familiar rhythm of fear giving way to…
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth Deutsche Bank is turning more bullish on corporate America. Backed by a supportive macro backdrop, it sees S&P 500 earnings growth coming in strong at 19.2% for Q1, comfortably ahead…
Valuations – Software vs. World ex. TMT and Technology vs. World TMT Valuations in global tech and software have narrowed sharply, with forward P/Es at their lowest level relative to world equities in more than…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in March to 342K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…
U.S. Tech – 3-Month Change in Price vs. 3-Month Change in FY2 EPS Until recently, U.S. tech earnings and stock returns have run hand in hand. With the correlation breaking down, dips are looking more…
Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation When oil climbs, inflation usually follows, lifting energy and transport costs that spread through the economy. The result often weighs on stocks, as tighter profit margins and softer consumer spending…
1000 Point Advances for the Dow Jones Industrial Average The Dow posted its 25th intraday gain of more than 1,000 points yesterday, with 23 coming during Trump’s presidency. Everyone wants to catch the big move,…
Valuation – PEG Ratio Between the U.S. and the Rest of the World The valuation premium of U.S. equities versus the rest of the world, through the PEG lens, has narrowed in recent months. But…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -2.13% YoY in March. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
U.S. Fund Flows Since 2019, both cash and bonds have drawn substantial inflows, as investors have shifted toward perceived safety and income‑generating assets amid heightened macro uncertainty and evolving central‑bank policy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Magnificent Seven 12-Month Forward P/E Valuations for the Magnificent Seven have come down meaningfully from their recent highs. That doesn’t necessarily make them cheap, but the risk‑reward looks far more balanced. Valuations make more sense…