AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 trades near record highs, up more than 10% year to date, but US retail sentiment refuses to follow. The AAII bull-bear spread remains stuck…

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October 2025, the S&P 500’s forward P/E has eased from 23 to 21, largely on the back of stronger forward earnings estimates. Valuations look less stretched than…

S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE) Record profitability is helping justify elevated S&P 500 valuations, with trailing four-quarter ROE at 22%, a historic high. But if margins come…

Potential Indicators of Exuberance Relative to History AI bubble worries are creeping back into the narrative. Investors are more bullish than usual, but sentiment points to late-cycle exuberance rather than a full-blown bubble. Image: Goldman…

Large Cap MCG & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Growth The unwind has left positioning in large-cap tech lagging earnings growth, creating space for the rally to push higher if revisions hold and macro risks stay…

S&P 500 Peak-To-Trough Decline After Major Issuance Booms Major U.S. equity issuance booms tend to follow late-cycle optimism. On its own, that is more a caution flag than a sell signal. It carries more weight…

U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) Valuations in U.S. equities remain extended, with most metrics running over two standard deviations above history. “Cheap” is largely a thing of the past, but stretched markets can…

S&P 500 Index and Trend Channels What we are seeing in U.S. stocks looks more like consolidation than the start of a lasting downturn, with investors digesting recent gains and adjusting their outlook. Image: J.P.…

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are leaning toward a steady growth outlook. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to U.S. real GDP growth of about…

Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 Infrastructure has driven the AI rally, with chip giants, data center builders and cloud platforms capturing the upside while software and productivity names fall behind. Image:…

Global Share Buyback Announcements Global share buybacks show no signs of slowing, as steady earnings keep the pipeline full. For shareholders, that’s a supportive backdrop, and unless profits falter, the momentum looks durable. Image: J.P.…