S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle In 2024 and 2025, the S&P 500 danced to the beat of the four-year election cycle. Is 2026 when the music changes? Image: Nautilus Research
Valuation – Market Capitalization of Stock Market / M2 Money Supply U.S. market capitalization has surged since late 2022, lifting valuations far beyond what M2 growth alone can explain. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When US Treasury yields rise quickly, equity valuations usually fall hardest among high-growth, richly priced names. One risk for 2026 is a sudden…
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The dominant macro theme for 2026 is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have laid the groundwork for renewed economic…
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year Traders are sticking to expectations for two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, even as Fed projections reveal deep splits. The easing drive has lost some steam,…
S&P 500 Returns – U.S. Presidents That Made It Six Years In Office There’s fresh fuel for the 2026 bulls: the sixth year of a presidency has been pure upside for U.S. stocks, with average…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 For many investors, January’s performance in the U.S. market feels as unpredictable as a coin toss, but since 1964 it has still delivered an average gain…
Global Debt Hits a Fresh Record Global debt keeps climbing, set to breach $350 trillion this year. A reminder that fiscal discipline and global coordination remain crucial to preventing financial shocks. Image: International Monetary Fund
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The U.S. dollar slid through 2025, on pace for its steepest annual drop since 2017. The weaker greenback is easing pressure on emerging‑market borrowers with dollar debt and lifting dollar‑denominated commodities.…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day After a roaring year for the S&P 500, bears are sick of 2025, fed up like cats on bath day, and now they’re charging after bulls as if it’s their…
U.S. Budget Deficit as a % of GDP The U.S. administration’s strong interest in rate cuts is largely driven by the need to make financing the enormous deficit more sustainable. By lowering rates, the government…