S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, remains deep in euphoria territory. When the crowd is this bullish, the risk…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.60%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is…
VIX Seasonality Summer calm rarely lasts. U.S. stock volatility usually kicks in about now. Does this time break the pattern? Image: Topdown Charts
Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has run well ahead of its long‑term median over the past years, but that kind of strength will be tough to repeat from today’s…
Sector Fund Flows Over the past 12 months, investors have piled into tech funds on the back of AI fever, chip strength and improving earnings outlooks. Can the momentum hold? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 September is typically a weak month for U.S. equities, and midterm years tend to make it worse. Once Election Day passes, uncertainty lifts and markets frequently improve. Image:…
S&P 500 Performance After a Positive August and YTD Between 10% and 17.5% History says this setup is bullish. Since 1945, when August closed in the green with the market up between 10% and 17.5%…
U.S. Equity Market Capitalization Since ChatGPT launched, multiple expansion has contributed 25% of the surge in U.S. market cap, crushing the equity risk premium and leaving little room for error if AI demand or earnings…
S&P 500 and 10-Year Yield Correlation Daily moves in U.S. stocks and 10-year UST yields have turned sharply negative, eclipsing 2022 levels. But over the past four years, it has been the volatility of rates,…
PHLX Semiconductor Index Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Every year, the PHLX Semiconductor Index makes investors sit through an average 30% drawdown. But it has closed higher in 20 of the last 31 years.…