S&P 500 -10% Or More Annual Declines Are Rare Double-digit declines in the S&P 500 during a calendar year are rare, but they never come out of nowhere. Since 1928, they’ve occurred only twelve times,…

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and DXY Weighted 2-Year Rate Differential The U.S. dollar’s recent gains have been surprisingly modest, given the backdrop. In fact, rate differentials still argue for a softer greenback. Image: TS Lombard

Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance After Oil Shocks Historically, sharp oil‑price spikes have often, but not always, been followed by weaker bond performance because higher energy costs push headline inflation and expectations of future…

Energy Positioning vs. Oil Price Energy positioning is lagging what you’d expect considering how far oil prices have already moved up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Unemployment Rate Softer growth is set to nudge joblessness higher, with U.S. unemployment seen near 4.6% by year‑end and closer to 4.9% under a harsher oil shock scenario. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 3-Month Option-Implied Volatility Since 2024, the volatility of the average stock in the S&P 500 has been on the rise. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index Investor sentiment has turned sharply risk‑averse in recent weeks, as the Middle East conflict and its potential spillovers have made markets more cautious about risk assets. Image: Real…

S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Even when midterms shake investor sentiment, history leans bullish, with U.S. stocks up an average of 8.8% in second presidential terms since 1950. Midterm jitters…

CTAs Exposure to the U.S. Dollar After betting against the U.S. dollar, Commodity Trading Advisors are easing up on their shorts and edging toward neutral. Few will be surprised as the greenback finds support when…

Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies have slipped to neutral, with positioning now in the 40th percentile, as higher volatility has triggered a recent bout of de-risking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

WTI Oil Prices in Real Terms The 2026 oil shock looks far less dramatic in historical terms. It still bites, just not with the same force. Once you adjust for inflation and reduced energy intensity,…