10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields vs. New Fed Chair
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields vs. New Fed Chair 10-year U.S. Treasury yields often push higher in the first six months after a new Fed chair takes office, as markets adjust to a new policy regime.…
S&P 500 Performance After Six Week Wins Streaks Up >10%
S&P 500 Performance After Six Week Wins Streaks Up >10% Six weeks up and more than 10% higher. Historically, that combination has been a tailwind for U.S. stocks, delivering average 12-month returns of 17.1% since…
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons During earnings season, the S&P 500 typically rallies, posting a median gain of 2% over the first four weeks. This time, the index is up nearly four times that…
Performance vs. S&P 500 by Uses of Cash
Performance vs. S&P 500 by Uses of Cash U.S. companies that return the most cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks have outperformed the S&P 500 since 1992. The outperformance usually reflects stronger fundamentals and…
Bitcoin and Software
Bitcoin and Software Bitcoin has largely tracked software stocks in recent years. The reset phase now looks to be transitioning into a rebound. Both have cleared near-term resistance and are starting to build short-term uptrends.…
YTD Change in S&P 500 Price, Earnings, and Valuation
YTD Change in S&P 500 Price, Earnings, and Valuation The S&P 500 has pushed higher this year, but valuations have eased as earnings expectations outpace price gains. When profits accelerate, markets can rise without stretching…
S&P 500 Earnings Growth – Consensus vs. Historical Norms
S&P 500 Earnings Growth – Consensus vs. Historical Norms Historically, S&P 500 earnings have risen 6.5% annually. The 18.6% call for 2026 is more than twice that rate, and forecasts for 2027 still around 16%.…
S&P 500 Bull Markets
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market ran for eight years and returned 288%. At just 3.5 years old and up more than 100%, this one still looks…
Magnificent Seven and S&P 500 ex Magnificent Seven Earnings Growth
Magnificent Seven and S&P 500 ex Magnificent Seven Earnings Growth After several quarters of narrowing performance between the Mag 7 and the S&P 493, the gap widened sharply again this quarter as the Mag 7…
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Returns
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still priced for perfection, the next five years may bring thinner returns. These are exceptional businesses, but price matters. Even the strongest names can…
S&P 500 Median Company EPS Growth
S&P 500 Median Company EPS Growth Earnings growth for the S&P 500 median company is running in the double digits, the strongest pace in four years, lifted by AI enthusiasm and confident outlooks from executives.…