S&P 500 Performance When Up YTD Between 10-20% at the End of September When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% YTD by late September, Q4 tends to be bullish, with an 86% success…

Valuation – S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 P/E Prices have lagged the earnings boom, pulling near-term valuations below their trend-earnings multiples. The US market, for now, shows no…

S&P 500 Presidential Cycle Year three of the presidential cycle is Wall Street’s historically strongest period. With that phase just around the corner, the S&P 500 looks positioned for a solid 2027, enough to keep…

Different Market Sentiment Indicators Current market sentiment indicators are stuck in neutral, with bullish conviction matching bearish caution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Core CPI Forecast Goldman Sachs expects hotter U.S. core CPI than markets in September and October, but cooler readings in November and December, meaning markets underprice near-term inflation risk while overpricing its persistence later.…

Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally has mostly been an infrastructure trade, lifting chipmakers, data-center builders and cloud platforms while software and productivity names sit on the sidelines. Image:…

Global Share Buyback vs. Tech Sector Share in U.S. Buybacks Tech’s share of U.S. buybacks has climbed over the past decade, but the trend may begin to reverse, as AI spending diverts cash away from…

S&P 500 – Aggregate Net Profit Margin, 1999-2026, Against Its Long-Run Average S&P 500 margins have moved up and stayed up, sitting around 60% above the long-term average. The question isn’t if that’s lofty, but…

Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Capex estimates continue to surprise to the upside. Hyperscaler spending is now set to exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027, pointing to a trajectory that looks more like a new era than…

Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Fast-rising U.S. Treasury yields tend to crush the most expensive growth stocks. A sudden 50 basis point jump in the 10-year over a…

U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equities look expensive by almost any historical measure, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their long-term averages. But if momentum holds, the rally…