Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Analysts have trimmed their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, but expectations still look elevated as confidence in the full-year picture holds up. Image:…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -0.22% YoY in June. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
Valuation – 10-Year Total Return for S&P 500 over the Last Century Based on Starting CAPE Ratio Markets have a habit of pushing valuations to extremes, but history is unforgiving: elevated CAPEs tend to disappoint…
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns On average, investors have to live through a 14% drawdown each year, but the S&P 500 has still ended higher in 35 of the past 46 years.…
Recession – Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle What a run. The U.S. expansion is now the sixth-longest on record. If 2026 passes without a recession, it climbs into the top five. Image: Deutsche Bank
Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change NYSE margin debt now exceeds $1.4 trillion, a 54% jump from a year ago and accelerating rapidly toward record territory. History shows that when leverage grows faster than…
S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years After a weak first quarter, the S&P 500 is tracking the familiar Trump-era playbook, with a rally still very much in play for the rest of the year. For…
Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is at one of its most accommodative levels in years, a friendly setup for borrowing, fund-raising and broader risk appetite. Image: Deutsche Bank
Healthcare Positioning At just the 32nd percentile, healthcare positioning still looks underweight, leaving investors room to build positions. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Semiconductor Earnings vs. Hyperscaler Free Cash Flows Semiconductor earnings are riding the AI capex wave, but hyperscaler free cash flow is taking a hit as spending on chips, data centers, and networking accelerates. Image: Goldman…
U.S. Dollar Net Positioning Traders haven’t been this bullish on the dollar in years. The greenback is gaining ground as markets price in a Fed hike. Dead dollar? Not yet. Image: Bloomberg